2024-01-24-莱坊-Darwin_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_870kb

报告摘要

Darwin Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q4 2023 report provides an analysis of the residential sales and rental markets in Greater Darwin, highlighting trends in property prices, rental yields, and market activity alongside economic and demographic factors.

Main Market Trends

Sales Performance

Mainstream Sales Volume: Increased by 7.7% in the September 2023 quarter, with 1,856 residential homes (houses and apartments) sold.
Annual Sales Volume: Recorded a -14.4% decrease compared to the previous year.
Days on Market: The average days on market for a home was 126 days in September 2023, up from 112 days one year ago.
House Sales: Rose by 19.2% in the September 2023 quarter to 910 houses, but annual sales volume was 13.5% lower than a year ago.
Apartment Sales: Declined by 1.7% in the September 2023 quarter, with annual sales volume 15.2% lower than a year ago.
Average Days on Market for Apartments: 149 days in September 2023, compared to 152 days one quarter earlier and 135 days one year ago.

Price Performance

Median Residential Value: Stood at $503,000 in September 2023.
Annual Price Change: Residential property prices fell by -5.4% over the year, while increasing 0.4% in the last quarter.
Median House Value: $577,500 in September 2023, down -8.1% from the previous year.
Median Apartment Value: $370,000 in September 2023, up 3.2% annually.
Price Forecast:
- -2% in 2023,
- 3% in 2024,
- 5% in 2025.

Rental Market Analysis

Rental Performance

Total Residential Rental Vacancy: 2.9% in September 2023, up 100 bps from the previous year.
Annual Rental Growth: Residences increased by 5.2%, while houses saw 5.7% annual growth and apartments 4.0%.
Quarterly Rental Growth:
- Residences: 0.8%
- Houses: 0%
- Apartments: 1.0%
Median Weekly Rent:
- Residences: $605
- Houses: $650
- Apartments: $520

Gross Rental Yields

Annual Gross Rental Yield:
- Residences: 6.32%
- Houses: 5.54%
- Apartments: 7.72%
Yield Trends:
- Gross rental yields for apartments increased by 52 bps over the year.
- Overall, gross rental yields for the region have decreased by 16 bps in the past year.

Rental Forecast

Rental Growth Forecast:
- 3% in 2023,
- 2% in 2024,
- 2% in 2025.

New Builds and Economic Indicators

New Builds

Annual Building Approvals: Increased by 1.5% to 345 dwellings in September 2023, compared to a -32.9% drop the previous year.
House Approvals: Trended -1.5% lower than the previous year.
Apartment Approvals: Rose by 100% compared to the year earlier.

Economic and Demographic Drivers

NT Economic Growth:
- 2.7% in 2021,
- 6.1% in 2022,
- 1.8% in 2023,
- Forecasted 2.9% in 2025.
Unemployment Rate:
- 4.1% in September 2023.
Official Cash Rate Target:
- 3.9% in December 2023,
- Forecasted 3.9% in 2025.
Population Growth:
- 1.5% forecasted by 2025, with an estimated population of 149,250 in 2022.

Residential Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (Average 2023f–2025f)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average
NT Economic Growth	2.7%	6.1%	1.8%	2.9%	2.9%	2.6%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Darwin Residential Forecast (Average 2023f–2025f)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average
Price Performance	29%	1%	-2%	3%	5%	2%
Rental Market	10%	5%	3%	2%	2%	2%

Key Takeaways

Residential Rents: Continued to rise, with a 5.2% annual increase and 0.8% growth in the last quarter.
Capital Values: Experienced a -5.4% annual decline, with a 0.4% increase in the last quarter.
Market Equilibrium: Rental vacancy at 2.9% suggests a balanced market, with 3% being the benchmark for equilibrium.
Apartment Performance: Outperformed houses in rental growth and gross rental yields, with the highest yields across Australia.
Economic Outlook: The Northern Territory is expected to grow at 2.9% in 2025, with a stable unemployment rate and a forecasted cash rate target of 3.9%.
Construction Activity: Apartment approvals surged by 100% compared to the previous year, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Research
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366659
Matthew Knight – Residential Site Sales
Email: matthew.knight@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61413058020
Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61290366845
Erin van Tuil – Residential
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61409325700
Chris Hill – Valuations
Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +61438807249