20241228-浙商证券-食饮行业周报（2024年12月第3期）_茅台聚焦供需适配_重视春节年货数据催化_17页_1mb

贵州茅台战略调整 2025 面临挑战与机遇

面对复杂经济形势，茅台集团坚守四项原则：挑战中团结一致，实干中绩优。虽面临宏观动能转换等多重挑战，但 2024 年仍稳步达成营收、利润双位数增长目标。2025 年将重心放在解决供需适配问题，推进产品结构调整，确保 53 度 500ml 飞天茅台价格稳定。茅台 1935 系列目标 2025 年销售额增速不低于五年前均速，将持续布局 500~800元价格带，重点覆盖长三角、珠三角等核心区域。

古井贡酒再创佳绩 2025 战略转型

2024 年集团经营业绩再创新高，提出“一条心、两条线、三个作为”战略方针，强调用户至上、产品创新和人才培养。面对百年变局，采取强化团队、聚焦发展部署。2025 年将打造厂商命运共同体，挖掘经销商潜力，继续推动华夏酒城建设，助力企业迈向世界一流。

白酒板块分化明显 周报高端企业迎压

在政策与消费复苏驱动下，白酒板块呈现机会分化：高端酒维持高势能格局，推荐贵州茅台、五粮液；次高端及区域推荐古井贡酒、山西汾酒、迎驾贡酒、今世缘。低基数修复带动弹性机会：高端推荐泸州老窖，次高端推荐老白干酒、水井坊。

大众品板块布局在即 景气与修复并重

针对 2025 大众板块投资，浙商证券提出“两条主线”：景气度主线中零食饮料估值修复优于乳制品，看好青啤、三只松鼠、东鹏饮料；修复主线聚焦餐饮供应链回暖，B 端企业如安井食品、宝立食品、颐海国际率先受益。

人事变动密集进行 头部企业调整加速

青岛啤酒董事长换届为积极利多，姜宗祥十七年供应链经验加持。山西汾酒迎来新帅武跃飞，曾任汾阳市委书记，具备跨界治理力。古井贡酒启动分红，中期收益派息超 30亿，提振市场信心。泸州老窖任免新副总，加强管理层储备。

风险提示

本文摘自 投资包含风险，股价波动可能伴随行业动销不及预期、食品安全等不确定因素，投资决策应结合政策红利、公司治理完善与消费回暖三重逻辑。

English Summary (Summary in English due to user instruction, but original content is in Chinese):

China Wine Market Report Analysis: Key Developments and Investment Opportunities

Moutai Strategy Adjustment and Future Challenges:
Facing complex economic conditions, Moutai Group adheres to four principles: tackling challenges collectively, implementing practical measures, and achieving high performance. Despite macroeconomic shifts, Moutai maintained double-digit growth in revenue and profit in 2024. For 2025, the focus is on resolving supply-demand alignment, stabilizing prices, and promoting product diversification. Moutai 1935 sales growth for 2025 will not fall short of the five-year average. The company plans to target the 500-800 RMB price range, expanding into restaurants and international markets.

Gujing Group Achieves High Performance and Strategic Shift for 2025:
In 2024, Gujing achieved record-high performance, emphasizing three key strategies: user-oriented, product innovation, and talent development. Adapting to market changes requires reinforcing team synergy and driving sustainable growth. For 2025, Gujing aims to build a shared future with distributors, enhance the "Hexiucity" initiative, and rise to the status of a world-class enterprise through collaborative efforts.

Market Divergence in 2024 and Investment Opportunities in 2025:
Although liquor stocks showed mixed performance, policy and consumer recovery are expected to bolster the market. Recommended securities include Moutai, Wuliangye for their sustained strength, and Gujing and Shanxi Fenjiu for their growth potential. Looking at low-base recovery, Wuliangye and Lao Baigan Wine are highlighted for their exposure to stimulus-driven growth. Medium and low-end segments focus on value stocks with stable performance and low valuation.

Focus on the Consumer Goods Sector in "Dual Trends": Both Upbeat Segments and Restructuring Opportunities:
Driven by consumption policy support, companies specializing in C-end and B-end supply chains are poised for growth. QDPRecruiting stock, instant noodles, and culinary ingredients are expected for strong valuation recovery. Specific companies include Qingdao Beer, Sanqi Snacks, Royal Trinity Food, and Tianwei Foods.

Significant Leadership Changes in Leading Enterprises:
Qingdao Beer’s leadership transition brings new stability, supported by its experienced management team. Shanxi Fenjiu welcomed a new general manager, while Luzhou Laojiao recruited a new deputy general manager. These changes mark a new chapter for these companies and may present good investment opportunities in the dynamic environment the new year.

Risks:
This report contains opinions on stock investment with inherent risks, including potential declines in market momentum and the threat of food safety issues. Decisions should balance policy support, corporate governance improvements, and overall consumption patterns.