20230616-国盛证券-房地产开发1-5月统计局数据点评_开发投资额同比跌幅扩大至7.2_商品房销售额增速放缓_13页_944kb

Real Estate Market Analysis Summary (1-5M 2023)

Key Overview

The report analyzes the Chinese real estate market for the first five months of 2023, based on statistical data. It highlights significant declines in development and construction indicators, mixed sales trends, and funding challenges, concluding that the market is characterized by fragmentation, with a focus on differentiated opportunities.

Development Investment

• Total development investment for 1-5M 2023 was 457 million yuan, a 72% decrease year-on-year, partially due to land investment, low new construction starts, and shrinking construction areas.
• The decline widened from previous periods, with a 10 percentage point increase in the YoY drop, raising expectations of a rough range of 63% to 86% for the full year.
• Charts: Data visualizes cumulative and monthly values, showing contractions across all regions, with eastern regions experiencing the steepest decline.

New Construction

• Cumulative new construction area was 397 million square meters, down 226% year-on-year.
• Single-month data showed improvement (198% ring increase in May), but overall weakness persists due to low land transactions and weak sales conditions.
• Projection: Annual decline expected between 10% and 15% in new construction starts.

Completion

• Cumulative completion area reached 27.8 million square meters, up 196% year-on-year, attributed to past sales peaks and ongoing "secure delivery" measures.
• Full-year growth is projected at 8% to 12%, supported by policy implementation and fund allocation.

Sales

• Sales amount increased 84% year-on-year (narrowing from prior), while sales area decreased 9% (expanding from prior), indicating demand slips likely from inventory clearance and insufficient policy impacts.
• Strong regional divergence is noted, with estimates for urban performance: Top-tier plus up to two-thirds of tier-two cities plus some tier-three cities could outperform.
• Risk: Potential secondary sales dip if no major policies are introduced in June-July.

Funding

• Total funds secured by房企 (developers) fell 66% year-on-year, exacerbated by weak financing from "three arrows" policies.
• Positive aspects: Growth in deposit and personal loan contributions, but overall funding remains strained, requiring monitoring of policy execution like credit bonds and REITs.
• Charts: Breakdown of funding sources shows widening disparities, with domestic loans and foreign capital declines.

Investment Recommendations

• The market's future is centered on fragmentation; recommended focus on urban clusters: Top-tier cities plus a limited number of tier-two and tier-three cities are expected to lead.
• Stock selection:
  1. Market-share-focused companies (e.g., A-shares:滨江集团, 华发股份; H-shares:绿城中国, 越秀地产).
  2. Potential beneficiaries of policy liberalization in key cities.
  3. Property management firms (e.g., A-shares:招商积余; H-shares:华润万象生活).

Risks

• Policy execution may lag expectations.
• Further market deterioration could cause ripple effects, leading to potential asset defaults or economic spillovers.
• Analysts maintain an "Add" stance for the industry, contingent on factor developments.