2025-05-22-Jefferies-阿布扎比国家石油公司钻井公司（ADNOCDRI）_关注股息与非常规油气机会_13页_946kb

ADNOC Drilling Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights:

• Rating: BUY with a price target at AED 6.80 (+29% upside).
• Dividend Focus: Enhanced dividend policy with FY25 cash payout of AED 1,045m (+217% YoY), maintaining a floor starting 2Q25, targeting ≥4% yield (c.4% currently, projected 5% by 2027).
• Unconventional Oil & Gas Drilling: OFS Phase 1 delivered 34 wells post-1Q25; Phase 2 (c.AED 1.2/sh value accretion) expected by 2028.
• Financial Metrics:
  • FY25E Revenue: $4.707bn (+7%, capex c.$500–550m).
  • EV/EBITDA: 11× avg. FY25/26 (BBG: 10×), premium vs. peers (peers avg. 5.4×, ADNOC Drilling 6.2×).
  • Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.9× (<2.0x target), FCF projected c.AED 1.04bn FY25.

Analysts' Perspective:

• Upside Catalysts: Dividend growth, EMG growth initiatives (electrification, emissions abatement), ongoing OFS expansion.
• Risks: ADNOC's capex reduction, unconventional drilling margins (-20% vs. conventional), peer competition.

DCF/Valuation Insight:

• PT derived from EV/EBITDA 14× (vs. BBG 10.5×), DCF at AED 5.34, sum of metrics averages AAED 6.80/sh.

Corporate Actions:

• Recent Enersol acquisitions ($+800m) enhancing unconventional capabilities.
• Rig count to peak 148+ by YE26, supporting 5mmb/d oil production by ADNOC.