2025-06-12-花旗集团-阿布扎比国家石油公司天然气公司（ADNOCGAS）_阿布扎比国家石油公司天然气公司（ADNOCGAS.AD）_数据中心热潮为增长故事带来上行空间；升级为买入评级_13页_505kb

ADNOC Gas PLC (ADNOCGAS.AD) Summary

Core Content Overview

ADNOC Gas PLC is a key player in the UAE's energy sector, with a focus on gas processing, liquid exports, and LNG operations. The company is set to benefit from the UAE's push towards gas self-sufficiency by 2030 and the significant expansion of data center capacity in the country, which is expected to drive higher domestic gas demand. Citi Research has upgraded its recommendation to Buy and increased its target price to Dh4.00, citing improved growth prospects and a stronger financial framework.

Main Points and Key Information

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy (upgraded from Neutral)
• Target Price (TP): Dh4.00 (up from Dh3.45)
• Expected Share Price Return: 18.3%
• Expected Dividend Yield (DY): 5.0%
• Expected Total Return: 23.4%

Financial Performance and Projections

Growth Projections

• Domestic Gas Sales CAGR: 5% to 2030 (up 100 bps from prior estimates)
• Export Liquids CAGR: c8% to 2030 (up 100 bps from prior estimates)
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5% (up 100 bps from prior estimates)
• EPS Outlook: Modest reduction (-3% avg '26-29E) due to higher financing costs, but '30E EPS is expected to rise by 3% and remain 7% above the VA consensus.

Valuation Metrics

Key Drivers of Growth

• Data Center Expansion: Citi estimates a ten-fold increase in UAE data center capacity, leading to higher domestic gas demand.
• Rich Gas Project Expansion: Improved feedstock availability is expected to support growth in both gas and liquids.
• Liquids Export Growth: Enhanced export potential is a key factor in the company's growth outlook.

Risks

• Oil Price Dependency: Approximately 50% of EBITDA is linked to oil prices, so a rise in oil prices would be positive.
• Upstream Production: Higher domestic demand and upstream production could further boost growth.
• Feedstock Contract Revisions: Negative changes could impact margins and returns.
• New Resource Development: Challenges in developing new resources may limit growth potential.

Valuation Assumptions

• WACC: 8.7%
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3.5% p.a.
• Valuation Multiple: 11x EV/EBITDA for the next five years
• Macro Assumptions:
  • Oil price at $64/b from 2027
  • Naphtha discount at -$5/b
  • Propane/butane discount at -$20/b
  • LNG prices linked to a 14% slope to oil in 2025 and 12% thereafter

Company Description

• Operations: 9 bcfd of raw gas processing, 21 mtpa of liquids (NGL), and 6 mtpa LNG via ALNG JV.
• Ownership: ADNOC holds c90% of the company with c10% free float on the Abu Dhabi Exchange.

Investment Strategy

Citi Research rates ADNOC Gas as a Buy due to:

• Improved gas to power trends
• Enhanced feedstock availability from the Rich Gas project expansion
• A strong financial framework with a projected 5.5% dividend yield in 2027

Summary of Key Financial Indicators

• EBITDA (Adj): Expected to grow from $5,931M in 2023 to $7,428M in 2027
• EBITDA Margin (Adj): Projected to increase from 33.9% in 2023 to 41.7% in 2027
• Operating Cash Flow: Expected to be robust, with a decline in 2026 and 2027 due to higher capex
• Free Cash Flow to Shareholders: Expected to decline from $4,877M in 2023 to $-686M in 2027

Analyst Information

• Lead Analysts: Oliver G Connor (AC), Alastair R Syme, Tianhong Bi, CFA
• Contact: Oliver G Connor - +44-20-7986-4043, oliverconnor@citi.com

Disclosure and Conflicts

• Conflict of Interest: Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc., which may have a conflict of interest with ADNOC Gas PLC.
• Investment Banking Services: Citi has acted as manager or co-manager of ADNOC Gas PLC offerings and has received compensation for investment banking services.
• Client Status: ADNOC Gas PLC is an investment banking client of Citi.
• Financial Interest: Citi has a significant financial interest in ADNOC Gas PLC.

Conclusion

Citi Research believes that ADNOC Gas PLC is well-positioned for growth due to the UAE's domestic demand increase and improved feedstock availability. The company's financial framework supports a positive outlook, and the upgraded investment recommendation to Buy reflects the enhanced upside potential. However, the company is not without risks, including oil price volatility and challenges in new resource development.