2024马来西亚经济调研报告英文版-经合组织OECD

OECD Economic Surveys: Malaysia 2024 Summary

Core Content

The 2024 OECD Economic Survey of Malaysia evaluates the country's macroeconomic developments, social inclusion progress, climate challenges, and strategies to foster growth through micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The report highlights Malaysia's economic performance, policy challenges, and opportunities for improvement in the context of global economic trends and domestic priorities.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Resilience: Malaysia has shown resilience in the face of recent shocks, including the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. The economy has managed to weather these challenges relatively well.
• Growth Trends: Economic growth has picked up in recent years, with real GDP growth projected at 4.9% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025. This is primarily driven by expanding domestic demand and a rebound in exports.
• Inflation: Inflation has slowed and is expected to remain moderate, declining below historical averages. However, it is anticipated to rise as energy subsidies are phased out.
• Monetary Policy: Monetary policy has tightened to address inflation, which has been kept in check by gradual monetary tightening and lower commodity prices.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal consolidation has started following the pandemic, but deficits and debt have increased above pre-pandemic levels. A new fiscal framework law is expected to strengthen fiscal sustainability, though additional tax revenues are needed to meet rising public spending demands.

Policy Challenges

• Fiscal Sustainability: Public debt is rising, and without new fiscal measures, it could exceed sustainable levels. The government needs to mobilise more tax revenues and improve tax administration.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Malaysia is vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations, particularly due to capital outflows and currency depreciation.
• Financial Sector Risks: Although financial sector risks are well-contained, there are still vulnerabilities that need to be addressed.
• Public Debt Management: The report suggests that fiscal consolidation should be pursued as planned, with a focus on improving economic governance.

Social Inclusion

• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates have reached low levels following years of decline. However, income inequality remains high compared to international standards.
• Redistributive Effects: Taxes and transfers have relatively small redistributive effects, and cash transfers could do more to support vulnerable households.
• Pension Coverage: Pension coverage is narrow and inadequate, and mandatory pension schemes are underdeveloped.
• Labour Market Issues: Skills mismatch and informality are major challenges. Wage growth has been slow but aligned with productivity.
• Gender Gaps: Gender inequalities in the labour market hinder women's potential. While women are better educated, they face barriers to employment and underrepresentation in high-skilled jobs.
• Policy Recommendations: The report suggests policies to reduce gender gaps and improve equal opportunities, as well as better alignment of tertiary education with labour market needs.

Climate Challenges

• Climate Risks: Climate change increases exposure to natural disaster risks, with floods being the most significant threat.
• Emissions Trends: Greenhouse gas emissions have increased, and energy consumption is correlated with economic growth.
• Fossil Fuel Subsidies: These have increased post-pandemic, and phasing them out is recommended to support climate action.
• Green Growth: Malaysia is advised to move towards mandatory carbon pricing and apply stricter environmental standards.
• Energy Transition: The report recommends boosting solar energy, developing biomass and hydrogen, and reducing fossil fuel dependence.

MSMEs as an Engine of Growth

• MSME Contribution: MSMEs account for most firms in Malaysia and are concentrated in the service sector. They are crucial for economic growth and employment.
• Productivity Gaps: MSME productivity is lower than large firms, and digitalisation is a key factor in improving productivity.
• Digitalisation Barriers: Small firms lag behind in digital adoption, and regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate digital trade.
• Financing Challenges: MSMEs face financing constraints, with limited access to venture capital and high reliance on internal funds.
• Export Potential: Only a few small firms are exporters, and export consortia could help improve MSME participation in international trade.
• Policy Recommendations: The report recommends scaling up MSMEs, improving digital infrastructure, reducing regulatory barriers, and enhancing access to financing.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Strengthen fiscal sustainability through tax reforms and better fiscal governance.
• Social Inclusion: Expand social protection and cash transfers, improve pension schemes, and align education with labour market needs.
• Climate Action: Phase out fossil fuel subsidies, implement carbon pricing, and promote green energy.
• MSME Growth: Support digitalisation, reduce regulatory burdens, and improve access to financing.

Conclusion

Malaysia is on the verge of becoming a high-income economy, but it faces significant policy challenges in maintaining growth momentum, fiscal sustainability, social inclusion, and climate resilience. The report outlines key areas for reform, including taxation, public sector efficiency, education, and MSME support, to ensure long-term economic stability and inclusive growth.