2022-11-18-毕马威-2022年航空业领袖报告（英文版）_62页_12mb

Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2022: Recovery through Resilience

Core Content

The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2022: Recovery through Resilience is an annual publication by Airline Economics and KPMG Ireland, offering insights into the aviation sector's recovery post-pandemic. It features contributions from industry leaders across airlines, leasing companies, rating agencies, and financial institutions, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities that the sector faces in 2022.

Main Issues and Perspectives

1. Airlines: Getting Back to Business

• Global Recovery Progress: Air travel demand has shown material recovery in 2021, with global passenger numbers reaching 2.3 billion, up from 1.1 billion in 2020. However, this is still only 55% of 2019 levels (4.5 billion).
• Regional Disparities: Domestic markets (US, China, Russia, Brazil) have driven much of the recovery, while the Asia-Pacific region remains the most affected, with traffic levels still 70% below 2019.
• Vaccination and Travel Restrictions: Despite high vaccination rates globally, the emergence of new variants like Delta and Omicron has led to renewed travel restrictions, impacting demand. The WHO has criticized the use of blanket travel bans, stating they are ineffective in controlling the virus.
• Future Outlook: IATA expects global passenger numbers to return to 2019 levels by 2024, with a focus on a coordinated global vaccine rollout and travel protocols.

2. Aircraft Leasing: Proven Resilience

• Resilience of Leasing Model: The leasing sector has shown remarkable resilience during the pandemic, with large, well-managed lessors playing a critical role in supporting airlines.
• Funding Role: Lessors have become increasingly important in funding new aircraft deliveries, with over 60% of 2021 deliveries funded through leasing.
• M&A Activity: The leasing industry saw significant consolidation in 2021, notably the AerCap acquisition of GECAS, creating a dominant player in the market.
• Investor Confidence: Investment-grade lessors raised over $32 billion in unsecured bonds in 2021, reflecting strong confidence in the sector.

3. Capitalising on Cargo

• Cargo Growth: The pandemic-driven surge in e-commerce has led to a sustained increase in cargo demand, which is seen as a long-term opportunity for the sector.
• New Investors and Lessors: The cargo market has attracted new entrants and interest from lessors and investors due to its stability and growth potential.

4. Rightsizing the Fleet

• Focus on Narrowbodies: Airlines and investors are prioritizing narrowbody, new technology aircraft due to their cost-effectiveness and flexibility.
• High Demand for A320neo and 737 MAX: These aircraft remain in high demand, with strong lease rates and prices reflecting their popularity.
• Widebody Challenges: The widebody market continues to face difficulties due to the uneven recovery and ongoing travel restrictions.

5. Aviation and the Environment

• Climate Change Concerns: The industry acknowledges the need for immediate action on reducing emissions, with ESG considerations becoming more prominent.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF): SAF is seen as the immediate solution for reducing carbon footprints, though its high cost and limited supply are major hurdles.
• Long-Term Solutions: Technological innovation, such as hydrogen and electric-powered aircraft, and operational efficiency are also seen as key to achieving net-zero goals by 2050.

Key Information

• Financial Impact: Global airlines lost $51 billion in 2021, a significant improvement from $137 billion in 2020, but still the second-highest loss on record.
• Government Support: Over $240 billion in government support has been provided to airlines, highlighting the strategic importance of air travel.
• Investor Confidence: Despite the pandemic, investors remain committed to the aviation sector, particularly in leasing and financing.
• Operational Excellence: Airlines that have survived the crisis are seen as adaptable and resilient, with a focus on operational efficiency to thrive in the recovery.
• Economic Recovery: Global economic activity has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, with GDP growth exceeding expectations, but inflation and interest rates remain concerns.

Final Thoughts

The report concludes that while the pandemic has been the most challenging period for aviation, the sector has demonstrated resilience. The recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on domestic travel and sustainable practices. A more coordinated global approach to vaccination and travel protocols is essential for a faster and more equitable recovery. The role of aircraft leasing in financing new deliveries and the importance of SAF in reducing emissions are highlighted as key areas for future development.