世界银行-莱索托经济更新_将财政政策转变为包容性增长的引擎（英）-2025.4_55页_7mb

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Lesotho Economic Update Summary (April 2025)

Analysis Overview

Economic Situation: Lesotho's economy experienced a fragile recovery in 2023-2024, driven by public investment (especially LHWP-II) and high SACU revenues. Growth is projected to moderately strengthen temporarily to 3.0% in 2025 but faces risks from external dependency, political instability, and climate shocks.
Inclusive Growth Challenges: High poverty rates, limited private sector development, and rigid spending hinder sustainable growth. Effective fiscal policy and targeted reforms are crucial.

Key Policy Actions for Fiscal Reform

This Economic Update identifies pathways toward inclusive growth through three policy actions:

1. Incentivize Private Sector Development

Enhances business environment (simplify regulations, open markets, Economic Inclusion Programs (EIPs)).
Improves education outcomes and skills training to align with劳动力市场需求.
Increases access to finance via credit guarantees and digital payments.

2. Strengthen Macro-Fiscal Management

Adopt Fiscal Rules (e.g., expenditure limits, structural balance rules) and establish a stabilization fund to manage volatility.
Reduce arrears through audits, transparency measures, and independent payment systems.
Strengthen SOE management and fiscal discipline, including a Debt Rule and stabilization fund.

3. Enhance Efficiency and Effectiveness of Public Spending

Shift resource allocation: Increase investment (especially sustainable projects) while controlling recurrent spending (e.g., wage bill via reevaluation and workforce alignment).
Deepen Public Investment Management (PIM) reforms with standardized appraisal and monitoring systems.
Improve Public Financial Management and procurement (e.g., mandatory full IFMIS use, Treasury Single Account, and public procurement digitalization).

Conclusions

Achieving inclusive growth requires bold reforms aligned strategically—a combination discipline fiscal policy investments private sector dynamism education upgrades—for resilient, equitable growth, taking advantage revenue windfalls dollarisation flexibility tightening budgets building fiscal buffers expanding reforms

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