2025-02-23-世界银行-东帝汶经济报告_从资源到成果——将公共支出转变为高增长（英）_61页_3mb

Timor-Leste Economic Report Summary

1. Recent Developments

• Economic Overview: Timor-Leste experienced economic expansion in 2024, driven by growth in the service sector, particularly tourism. GDP growth slowed in 2023 but rebounded due to budget execution and service sector recovery.
• Key Challenges: High public employment, fiscal deficits, low productivity, and external imbalances dominated the economic landscape. Public sector employment accounts for 77% of jobs, limiting private sector growth. Food inflation remains high due to import dependency and climate issues.
• Private Sector/Liquidity: Credit growth in the private sector is shallow, concentrated in household loans, but bank quality remains robust. Borrowing is hindered by high lending rates.

2. Outlook and Risks

• Economic Outlook: Growth is projected to average 3.5% in 2025-2026, supported by infrastructure projects and tourism. However, fiscal deficits are widening, supported by over-reliance on the Petroleum Fund. Inflation is expected to moderate, but external risks loom large.
• Key Risks: Fiscal sustainability is hampered by: 1) Depleting Petroleum Fund (risking depletion by 2035), 2) Narrow export base and high import dependency, 3) Climate-related disruptions threatening food security and infrastructure.

3. Special Focus: Public Expenditure Efficiency

• Inefficiencies: High public spending (∼85% of GDP) is unproductive, with low fiscal multipliers and poor outcomes in health and education. Salaries dominate expenditure, while capital projects suffer from delays and poor execution.
• HUMAN CAPITAL SPENDING: High education and health budgets yield poor results. Teacher salaries absorb 53% of education spending, while health has 50% staff costs, constraining long-term goals.
• Reform Recommendations:
  • Reduce recurrent spending, increase private sector development.
  • Cut inefficient subsidies, optimize wage bills, and improve capital spending efficiency.
  • Strengthen Public Investment Management (PIM) and procurement to enhance returns on public investments.
• Petroleum Fund: Urgent fiscal reforms are needed to diversify revenue sources and curb spending to prevent depletion by 2035.

4. Recommendations

• Fiscal Discipline: Tax broadening, revenue stability, and budget-stringency.
• Public Expenditure: Prioritize human capital and infrastructure through efficiency reforms.
• Economic Diversification: Diversify exports, attract foreign investment, and leverage ASEAN membership.

Key Data

• Population: 0.9 million
• GDP: $1.6 billion (2022 estimate)
• GDP per Capita: $1,295
• Petroleum Fund Balance: $18.9 billion (Sept 2024) -- projected depletion by 2035 without reforms.

The report emphasizes that Timor-Leste must improve fiscal and expenditure efficiency to achieve sustainable growth, diversify the economy, and preserve public services.