【世界银行】莱索托经济更新：将财政政策转变为包容性增长的引擎-2025.4_56页_6mb

Lesotho Economic Update Summary (April 2025)

Core Content

Lesotho, a small, mountainous, and largely rural nation with a population of about 2.3 million, has faced a decade of low and unstable growth. The country's real GDP growth dropped from 6.3% in 2012 to an 8.2% contraction in 2020, leading to a sharp decline in per capita income. However, the 2024 economic year marked a significant turning point, with a 2.3% GDP growth and a surge in SACU revenues and water royalties, which led to a large fiscal surplus despite increased public spending.

The recovery is driven primarily by the public sector, especially the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II), which has generated positive spillovers in the financial, communications, and business services sectors. Nevertheless, the private sector remains underdeveloped, with limited growth in manufacturing, utilities, and mining, which have slowed overall economic expansion.

Inflation has continued to decline, from 6.4% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2024, creating space for more accommodative monetary policy. However, the Central Bank of Lesotho (CBL) remains focused on maintaining the peg with the South African rand, limiting the scope for monetary stimulus.

Poverty remains high, with an estimated national headcount poverty rate of around 60%, largely due to limited employment opportunities. The unemployment rate is persistently high at 16%, with women and youth disproportionately affected. The informal sector continues to dominate, and the reliance on remittances and subsistence income has kept poverty levels elevated.

Main Points

1.1 Recent Developments

• Economic Growth: A modest recovery in 2024 highlights the need to accelerate macro-fiscal reforms.
• Labor Market: High poverty and unemployment rates persist, with limited job creation opportunities.
• Prices: Sustained disinflation has created room for more accommodative monetary policy.
• External Sector: SACU revenues and water royalties have brought the current account into surplus.
• Fiscal Policy: A burgeoning fiscal surplus has been driven by SACU transfers and water royalties, but remains vulnerable.

1.2 Economic Outlook and Risks

• Baseline Scenario: Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 3.0% in 2025 and return to its historical average of 2% thereafter.
• Risks: Lesotho is highly exposed to external shocks, including weak global and regional growth, geopolitical conflicts, and the potential non-renewal of AGOA.
• Domestic Risks: Political instability, fiscal mismanagement, and delays in aid implementation could hinder growth and reforms.

1.3 Policy Actions

Three key policy actions are proposed to incentivize private sector development, strengthen macro-fiscal management, and enhance public spending:

1. Incentivize Private Sector Development:

   • Reduce business costs and promote entry by simplifying regulations and improving investment decision-making.
   • Align policies with regional trade agreements to improve the business environment.
   • Encourage competition and modernize public sector operations.

2. Strengthen Macro-Fiscal Management:

   • Implement fiscal rules and establish a stabilization fund to insulate public spending from volatile SACU revenues.
   • Adopt a debt rule to improve debt sustainability.

3. Enhance Efficiency and Effectiveness of Public Spending:

   • Improve the allocative efficiency of the budget by increasing investment and controlling recurrent expenditures.
   • Strengthen public financial management through better transparency, accountability, and the use of systems like IFMIS.
   • Accelerate reforms in public procurement to enhance efficiency and prevent arrears.

Special Focus: Transforming Fiscal Policy into an Engine of Inclusive Growth

2.1 Importance of Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy plays a vital role in stabilizing the business cycle and fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. However, longstanding challenges in macro-fiscal management have weakened its impact on growth.

2.2 Key Reform Areas

1. Fiscal Rules and Stabilization Fund:

   • Implement fiscal rules to ensure disciplined budget management and establish a stabilization fund to build fiscal buffers.

2. Allocation of Spending:

   • Increase the share of the budget devoted to investment and improve the targeting of social programs.
   • Refine beneficiary registries (e.g., OAP) to eliminate ineligible beneficiaries and improve fiscal efficiency.

3. Efficiency of Public Spending:

   • Improve the quality of public investment by aligning projects with the National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP II).
   • Enhance public financial management through the adoption of a Treasury Single Account and daily bank reconciliation.
   • Strengthen public procurement by fully implementing the Public Procurement Act and improving transparency.

Key Information

• Fiscal Surplus: Lesotho achieved a 7.1% fiscal surplus in FY23/24 and an 8.8% surplus in FY24/25, largely due to SACU transfers and water royalties.
• Arrears: Public sector arrears peaked at 3.17% of GDP in end-FY23/24 but fell to 0.6% of GDP in early 2025.
• Public Spending: Public spending has been consistently above regional and peer country averages, driven by SACU and water royalties.
• Education: The education budget is high, but outcomes lag due to inefficiencies. Reforms include improving teacher effectiveness, aligning education with labor market needs, and increasing investment in infrastructure.
• Economic Inclusion Programs (EIPs): These programs provide integrated support to vulnerable populations, promoting self-employment and small business development.

Conclusion

Lesotho has a unique opportunity to build a foundation for robust and inclusive growth. This requires bold fiscal reforms, improved public financial management, and a supportive environment for private sector development. The government must act decisively to ensure that public resources are used efficiently and effectively to drive long-term growth and poverty reduction.