世界银行-哈萨克斯坦：加强公共财政促进包容性和韧性增长：公共财政审查（英）-2024-192页_9mb

The public finance review of Kazakhstan focuses on reforming the fiscal framework for inclusive and resilient growth, highlighting several key challenges and recommendations.

Fiscal Framework and Rules

Kazakhstan's fiscal framework aims for counter-cyclical policies through rules-based management, but implementation is hindered by complexity and too many targets. Pro-cyclical behavior and revenue volatility risk fiscal instability, especially due to the dominance of oil revenues.

Quasi-Fiscal Activities

Off-budget spending via extra-budgetary funds and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) obscures the fiscal stance, generating implicit liabilities. Social pillars like banks and utilities require stricter oversight to curb fiscal risks.

Revenue Mobilization

Non-oil revenues stagnate, hampering fiscal sustainability. VAT is below average globally, and tax exemptions create revenue gaps. Broadening the tax base (e.g., carbon pricing, financial transactions) and simplifying the regime can enhance revenue collection.

Education and Social Spending

Public education funding increases but efficiency and equity remain issues. Overlap in social assistance programs reduces effectiveness. Teacher deployment and customized financing could improve outcomes.

Budgeting and Transparency

Performance budgets and monitoring systems are underdeveloped. Greater integration between strategic plans and budgets, along with enhanced transparency tools for citizens, is crucial.

Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

Disparities in subnational revenues constrain service delivery. Equalization transfers need recalibration to support local governance without distorting incentives.

Key Recommendations

• Simplify fiscal rules and strengthen monitoring systems with escape clauses for crisis exemptions.
• Broaden revenue sources through green taxes and international best practices.
• Enhance education efficiency via strategic redeployment of teachers and integrating technology.
• Mainstream climate risks into fiscal planning and budget cycles.
• Foster subnational autonomy while improving revenue stability.

This report underscores the need for structural reforms to build a more resilient and equitable fiscal system in Kazakhstan.