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Kazakhstan: Strengthening Public Finance for Inclusive and Resilient Growth

Core Content

This report, Kazakhstan: Strengthening Public Finance for Inclusive and Resilient Growth, is a Public Finance Review (PFR) conducted by the World Bank. It evaluates the country's fiscal framework, revenue mobilization, public spending, and budgeting practices to support sustainable and inclusive growth.

Main Viewpoints

• Fiscal Policy and Stability: Kazakhstan has effectively used fiscal policy to maintain macroeconomic stability, especially during the COVID-19 crisis. The country's large oil revenue and relatively low government debt have provided fiscal buffers.
• Fiscal Rules: The Government has updated fiscal rules to reduce non-oil deficit, avoid pro-cyclical fiscal stance, and manage government debt more conservatively.
• Quasi-Fiscal Activities (QFAs): QFAs, including those from extrabudgetary funds (EBFs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), have increased significantly, complicating macro-fiscal management and posing risks to the government budget.
• Tax Revenue Decline: The tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is declining, exposing the government to greater volatility from oil prices. Tax incentives have also pressured tax revenues, and their impact on business growth is not well analyzed.
• Public Spending: Education and social protection account for about 42% of general government budget spending, highlighting their importance for social development and long-term goals.
• Institutional Reforms: Kazakhstan has introduced performance-based budgeting (PBB) and established the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reform (ASPR) to improve strategic planning and monitoring.
• Climate and Green Transition: The country faces challenges from its heavy reliance on fossil fuels, including increased vulnerability to climate change and potential fiscal impacts from decarbonization.
• Fiscal Space and Risks: Despite current fiscal buffers, the risk of future oil price shocks and the need for a more diversified revenue base remain significant.

Key Information

• Oil Dependency: Oil contributes about 65% of merchandise exports and 36% of government budget revenue. This creates a high risk of overreliance on oil and limits fiscal flexibility.
• Fiscal Resilience: Kazakhstan's fiscal framework is not yet fully resilient. The government needs to broaden its fiscal coverage to include quasi-fiscal activities and improve monitoring.
• Non-Oil Revenue Stagnation: Non-oil revenues as a percentage of GDP have stagnated, increasing the fiscal exposure to oil price volatility.
• Inflation Concerns: High inflation, driven by global factors and supply shocks, has raised concerns about the impact on the poor and the need for a coordinated fiscal and monetary response.
• Climate Impact: Climate shocks are expected to worsen labor market outcomes, with projected real wage declines and increased poverty by 2060.
• Fiscal Multipliers: The report highlights the importance of understanding fiscal multipliers to better assess the impact of public spending and taxation.
• Reform Recommendations: The report suggests simplifying fiscal rules, strengthening fiscal monitoring, improving tax policy and administration, and mainstreaming climate and gender considerations in budgeting.

Structure and Sections

1. Strengthening the Fiscal Framework for Inclusive and Resilient Growth

   • Fiscal Response to Macro Challenges: Examines the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy during crises.
   • Fiscal Posture Assessment: Includes analysis of the size of fiscal operations, government spending and tax multipliers, and the distributive effects of fiscal policies.
   • Fiscal Rules: Discusses the evolution of fiscal rules and their implementation challenges.
   • Emerging Challenges: Focuses on quasi-fiscal deficits and the green transition.
   • Recommendations: Suggests simplifying fiscal rules, expanding institutional coverage, and improving risk monitoring.

2. Managing the Fiscal Footprint and Risk from Quasi-Fiscal Activities

   • Highlights the increasing role of QFAs in the country's fiscal landscape.
   • Reviews the structure and risks of EBFs and QFAs, particularly in social and financial sectors.
   • Provides recommendations for better management of QFAs and fiscal risks.

3. Improving Domestic Revenue Mobilization

   • Focuses on the decline in non-oil revenue and the need for tax reforms.
   • Reviews corporate income tax, personal income tax, value-added tax, and excise tax.
   • Offers policy recommendations to improve tax efficiency and equity.

4. Public Spending on Education

   • Analyzes the efficiency of education spending and challenges in achieving equitable access.
   • Reviews the structure and performance of the education system.
   • Provides reform options for enhancing the effectiveness of education spending.

5. Public Spending on Social Protection

   • Examines the adequacy, efficiency, and effectiveness of social protection programs.
   • Reviews social assistance, social insurance, and active labor market programs.
   • Identifies areas for improvement in the social protection system.

6. Budgeting, Planning, Monitoring: Institutional Foundations for the Public Sector

   • Reviews the budgeting process, planning, and performance monitoring.
   • Discusses the integration of climate and gender agendas in public budgeting.
   • Provides recommendations for strengthening budgeting and intergovernmental fiscal relations.

7. Improving Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations

   • Analyzes the structure and responsibilities of subnational governments (SNGs).
   • Reviews revenue assignment, transfer formulas, and equalization mechanisms.
   • Suggests reforms to improve fiscal certainty and support local development.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for Kazakhstan to enhance its fiscal resilience, improve the efficiency of public spending, and diversify revenue sources. It calls for institutional reforms, better monitoring of quasi-fiscal activities, and the integration of climate and gender considerations into fiscal planning and budgeting. The ultimate goal is to support inclusive and resilient growth through a more robust and transparent public finance system.