世界银行-东帝汶经济报告_从资源到成果——将公共支出转变为高增长（英）-2025.1_60页_4mb

The Timor-Leste Economic Report synthesizes findings on the country's economic challenges, emphasizing the unsustainable fiscal path due to heavy public spending, inefficiencies, and dependence on petroleum revenues. With the Petroleum Fund projected to deplete by 2035, the report calls for urgent reforms to transform public spending into a catalyst for sustainable growth and enhanced economic resilience.

Economic Developments: In 2024, Timor-Leste experienced mixed growth driven by service sector recovery, but faced issues like high inflation, external deficits, and weak private sector participation. Public investment showed improvement in budget execution, but capital inefficiencies and recurring expenditure dominated spending, hindering long-term outcomes.

Outlook and Risks: The economic outlook for 2025-2026 projects average growth of 3.5%, supported by infrastructure projects, but risks include climate vulnerabilities, fiscal deficits, and limited export diversity. High reliance on imports and oil revenues exacerbate external imbalances, requiring diversification and fiscal consolidation.

Fiscal Sustainability and Public Expenditure: Timor-Leste spends $85+ billion in GDP proportionately, yet yields low economic returns with a fiscal multiplier around 0.1-0.2. Key recommendations focus on reducing recurrent spending, improving tax collection, streamlining procurement, and enhancing human capital investments to boost efficiency and outcomes.

Reforms and Recommendations: Priority areas include broadening the tax base, implementing value-added tax (VAT), optimizing wage bills, phasing out subsidies, and strengthening public investment management (PIM). The report advocates for strategic reforms, such as a new procurement law and human capital-focused spending, to unlock $600M-$1.5B in savings and drive inclusive growth through 2040. Immediate actions are urged to prevent fiscal collapse and ensure economic stability.