世界银行-超越预算的增长和就业财政政策_肯尼亚公共财政回顾（英）_135页_4mb

5.1. Key Recommendations from Kenya Public Finance Review

1. Enhance Revenue Mobilization:

• Strengthen Personal Income Tax (PIT) progressivity by adjusting brackets and rates for top and bottom decile earners, simplifying tax regimes for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
• Phase out mortgage interest deductions and revise capital income tax (CIT) rates to align more closely with PIT rates.
• Repeal SEZ tax exemptions, grandfather existing ones, and rationalize tax incentives.
• Reform Value Added Tax (VAT) by removing regressive exemptions (e.g., on non-food items, red meat) and potentially increasing rates with compensation for the poor to generate revenue while maintaining equity.
• Introduce carbon taxes on fuel and higher excises on alcohol, tobacco, and sugar-sweetened beverages, recycling revenues to protect low-income groups.
• Improve tax compliance through automated systems (e-TIMS) and enhanced taxpayer education.

2. Strengthen Expenditure Efficiency:

• Implement a hiring freeze for public positions, conduct skills audits, and redeploy staff across the public service.
• Phase out regressive allowances like the Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) and market adjustment components in remunerative allowances.
• Reduce public sector travel budget expenditure.
• Divest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in competitive sectors to increase efficiency and raise revenue.
• Improve public investment management using the Public Investment Management Information System (PIMIS) and enhance monitoring for SOEs.

3. Improve Governance and Accountability:

• Strengthen anti-corruption measures, including conflict of interest frameworks, automated procurement systems (e-GP), and the Treasury Single Account.
• Digitize and streamline county licensing and enhance transparency in business registration.

4. Enhance Public Services:

• Increase health and education spending targeting underserved areas and improving service delivery.
• Strengthen social safety nets, raise benefit levels, and improve targeting (e.g., NSNP, fertilizer subsidies).
• Reform water and sanitation tariffs to align with cost recovery and reduce urban-rural disparities.

5. Promote Equity and Inclusive Growth:

• Combine revenue and expenditure reforms to generate fiscal savings, paying down pending bills and funding social programs.
• Reform pension schemes and extend social insurance to informal sector workers.
• Enhance human capital through better education and health investments.

6. Synergistic Policy Packages:

• Package 1: Prioritize anti-corruption, governance, and formalization to build trust.
• Package 2: Promote competitiveness and private sector-led growth through tax reforms.
• Package 3: Optimize SOE footprint and boost private sector competition.
• Package 4: Optimize consumption subsidies and support the poor.
• Package 5: Leverage property-based revenues and reallocate travel budgets to drive productivity, especially in Nairobi and Naivasha.

7. Sequencing and Modeling Insights:

• Begin with quick wins in governance, revenue administration, and wage bill efficiency.
• Gradually implement fiscal consolidation and structural reforms (e.g., stronger taxes, SOE divestitures).
• Use revenue savings to fund: high-quality public services (health, education), social protection, and infrastructure.
• Modeling shows combining reforms can significantly reduce debt, raise real wages and consumption, and boost GDP (up to ~4% revenue-neutral positive in model). Debt reduction by ~5.9 pp by 2035 combined.

Essential Actions:

1. Fiscal Consolidation: Reduce interest payments and inefficient spending.
2. Progressivity Enhancements: Optimize PIT, CIT, and consumption taxes.
3. Operational Efficiency: Streamline public investment, SOEs, and procurement.
4. Governance Push: Advance anti-corruption, transparency, and accountability measures.
5. Equity Focused: Target social spending, health, and education to protect the vulnerable.