20240606-冠通期货-沥青_震荡运行_3页_495kb

Ascent (Bitumen) Market Analysis Summary

• Supply Side: Ascent crude oil production rate rose 22% to 287%, still at historical low due to profit losses, with refineries maintaining low output.
• Demand Side: Downstream industries show mixed development; road asphalt production increased by 3% to pre-2023 levels, but demand is hampered by rainfall and is generally weak.
• Inventory Levels: Stock ratio slightly rose post-May Day holiday but remains historically low, indicating tight supply.
• Fundamental Factors: Government ultra-long bonds issue may ease fiscal pressure and support infrastructure investment; however, overall economic indicators like transportation investment growth slowed, potentially limiting demand pull. Asphalt供需两弱 (both supply and demand weak), and prices could be influenced by crude oil trends.
• Market Prices: Futures contract 2409 dropped 0.2% to 3508 RMB/ton, below 5-day moving average, with neutral basis conditions.
• Recommendation: Strategy suggests观望 (cautious观望), waiting for policy impacts or market signals, amid risks from crude prices and external factors like potential U.S. sanctions.
• Disclaimer: Investment involves risks; consult the full report for detailed disclaimers.