2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Third_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Under_the_Three_70页_1mb

Summary of Republic of Moldova: Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The Republic of Moldova's economic recovery from the 2009 recession has been robust, with GDP growth reaching 8.4 percent in the first quarter of 2011, driven by strong exports and private domestic demand. Core inflation remains contained at around 3 percent, while headline inflation rose slightly to 7 percent in May 2011 due to energy price increases. The structural fiscal deficit has improved, and financial stability has strengthened. However, challenges such as high unemployment, persistent political instability, and a fragile global economy remain.

The Fund-supported program is on track, with all end-March 2011 performance criteria and structural benchmarks met. The authorities are requesting modifications to two performance criteria for end-September 2011 and end-March 2012, reflecting the need to adjust for higher-than-expected foreign exchange inflows and increased reserve requirements.

The key policy objectives for the remainder of the program are to consolidate macroeconomic stability and accelerate structural reforms to achieve the program goals by end-2012. These include fiscal sustainability, monetary policy adjustments, financial sector reforms, and structural changes to support growth and stability.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

• Growth: Expected to settle at 5 percent in 2011-12, with continued support from exports and domestic demand.
• Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to reach 8 percent in 2011 before easing toward the NBM's 5 percent target in 2013.
• Current Account: The deficit is expected to widen to 11.25 percent of GDP in 2011 and gradually decline to 8 percent by 2016.
• Unemployment: Remains above long-term averages, though expected to decline slowly.

Program Performance

• The program has been implemented effectively despite political uncertainties.
• Key achievements include improved fiscal balances, enhanced financial stability, and progress in structural reforms.
• Two performance criteria were missed due to delayed heating bill payments and higher-than-expected reserve money growth.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget remains appropriate and on track.
• The focus is on reducing current spending, increasing revenue through tax reforms, and improving tax administration.
• A comprehensive tax policy reform is planned for 2012, including a corporate income tax reintroduction, reduced tax exemptions, and alignment of excise rates with EU standards.

Monetary Policy

• The NBM raised the reserve requirement ratio to 14 percent in July 2011 to address inflationary pressures.
• The tightening is expected to anchor inflation expectations and reduce excess liquidity.
• Staff supports the tightening but emphasizes the need to focus on core inflation and accommodate first-round effects of energy price increases.

Financial Sector Policies

• Financial stability has improved with declining non-performing loans (NPLs) and rising bank profits.
• A mechanism to ensure timely payments and eliminate arrears has been established.
• The authorities have reached an agreement with commercial banks on sharing the costs of IPB liquidation, which is seen as a positive step.

Structural Reforms

• The government is working to resolve the loss-making energy sector through a payment mechanism and pricing reforms.
• Efforts to improve the business climate and promote exports continue, including the removal of the wheat export ban and alignment with EU food safety standards.
• Privatization of state-owned enterprises is being pursued to enhance efficiency and attract investment.

Key Information

• Performance Criteria Modification: Requested for end-September 2011 and end-March 2012, reflecting increased foreign exchange inflows and revised monetary policy.
• Debt Distress Risk: Public debt remains moderate at 30 percent of GDP in 2010, but private external debt is high at 45 percent, increasing vulnerability.
• Transnistrian Region: Continued public support has led to accumulation of external arrears, with the domestic-currency proceeds used to finance the budget deficit.
• IMF Documents: Include a Staff Report, Staff Supplement, Press Release, and several attachments such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Sustainability: Achieved through continued spending rationalization and revenue enhancement.
• Monetary Policy: Should focus on core inflation and accommodate energy price impacts.
• Financial Stability: Improved through enhanced supervision, prudential measures, and crisis preparedness frameworks.
• Structural Reforms: Necessary to support long-term growth and improve the business environment.

Conclusion

The staff appraisal concludes that Moldova's economy is on the right track, with good program performance and appropriate policies in place for the remainder of the program. The requested modifications to performance criteria are justified and will support the continued implementation of the program. Structural reforms and fiscal discipline are essential for sustaining growth and achieving macroeconomic stability.