2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Portugal_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waiver_of_Applicability_of_End_131页_2mb

Summary of Portugal's Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of End-March Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of End-March Performance Criteria for Portugal, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It includes the Staff Report, Staff Statement, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal, all of which provide a comprehensive overview of the economic situation, program performance, and future outlook for Portugal.

The review took place during discussions in Lisbon from February 15 to 28, 2012, and the staff report was completed on March 21, 2012. The report details the progress made in meeting program objectives and highlights the challenges that still remain, particularly in the context of economic adjustment, structural reforms, and financial stability.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Program Status and Performance

• Program implementation remains satisfactory, with all quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-December met and all but one of the 10 structural benchmarks for the third review observed, some with minor delays.
• Economic outcomes have largely aligned with the program's expectations.
• The recession in 2011 was milder than expected, primarily due to solid export growth.
• Current account deficit improved significantly, narrowing to 6.4% of GDP in 2011 from 10% in 2010.
• Unit labor costs (ULCs) showed some improvement, with wage moderation and higher productivity contributing to a more favorable trend.
• Fiscal consolidation has been achieved, with the general government deficit reaching 4% of GDP in 2011, slightly below the target of 5.9% of GDP.
• Primary structural balance improved, narrowing by over 3.5% of GDP in 2011.

2. Fiscal Consolidation

• The 2011 fiscal deficit target was met partly through one-off revenues, particularly from the partial transfer of pension funds to the state social security system.
• The public finance management reform has seen progress, including the merging of tax, customs, and IT directorates into a new Revenue Authority.
• A new law was enacted in February 2012 to strengthen expenditure commitment controls.
• The Fiscal Council was formally established, marking progress in public administration reform.

3. Structural Reforms and Competitiveness

• Structural reforms are progressing, including labor market reforms, privatizations, and telecom sector liberalization.
• The competitiveness gap was estimated at 13–14% in 2010 and has narrowed only marginally to date.
• Privatization efforts have yielded substantial proceeds, including the sale of a 40% stake in REN and a 2.7 billion euro sale of EDP, which exceeded expectations.
• The revised competition law and efficiency in legal procedures are among the structural reforms that have been implemented.

4. Financial Stability and Deleveraging

• The banking system has seen some progress in deleveraging, with the loan-to-deposit ratio declining from 158% in 2010 to 143% in 2011.
• Credit constraints are still present in certain sectors, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and the private sector is facing tighter lending conditions.
• The private debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 140%, and banks are highly leveraged, with capital injections and debt-to-equity conversions used to strengthen their capital positions.
• Reliance on ECB funding remains high due to market funding difficulties.

5. Risks and Challenges

• Elevated and volatile spreads reflect market skepticism about the program and Portugal's economic prospects.
• Sovereign spreads have worsened since the S&P downgrade from BBB- to BB, leading to sub-investment grade ratings and a change in investor base.
• Challenges include the simultaneous pursuit of fiscal austerity, structural reforms, and deleveraging, which can work at cross purposes.
• Recovery in access to sovereign debt markets is highly dependent on strong implementation of reforms and a strengthened European crisis response mechanism.

6. Outlook

• Output is projected to contract by 3 1/3% in 2012, with a further decline in 2013.
• Unemployment is expected to rise, averaging 14.5% in 2012, up from an initial forecast of 13.75%.
• Inflation remains elevated, driven by VAT increases and administered price adjustments.
• External adjustment is expected to be modest, with a current account deficit projected to fall by about 2% of GDP in 2012.
• Growth outlook beyond 2012 remains uncertain, with projections of 0.3% in 2013 and 2% in 2014, reflecting a cyclical rebound.

Key Policy Discussions

• Fiscal targets for 2012 are within reach, and there was broad agreement to maintain them.
• Structural reforms were extended to product markets and financial stability measures were emphasized.
• Efforts to enhance credibility and market confidence were identified as critical, especially with the recession set to deepen.
• Redoubling expenditure controls and timely implementation of reforms were highlighted as essential to achieving program goals.

Conclusion

The staff supports the request for a waiver of the end-March performance criteria, as they are likely to be met. The program strategy remains valid, but enhancing credibility and reducing market risks are crucial for Portugal's recovery. The focus is on sustaining fiscal adjustment, advancing structural reforms, and improving financial stability to restore market access and reduce macroeconomic imbalances.