2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Fourth_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Under_the_Three_55页_962kb

Summary of the Republic of Moldova: Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The document outlines the fourth reviews under the Extended Arrangement and the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, as well as requests for waiver and modification of performance criteria. It includes a staff report, staff statement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova. These documents were prepared in the context of economic discussions with Moldovan officials, which concluded on November 2, 2011, and the staff report was finalized on January 13, 2012.

The staff report and statement focus on Moldova’s economic developments and policies, while the press release summarizes the Executive Board’s discussion and statement reflects the IMF Executive Director’s views. The policy discussions cover fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and structural reform areas, and the program issues involve conditionality updates and reforms aimed at fiscal sustainability, financial stability, and growth support.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Outlook and Performance

• GDP Growth: Moldova experienced strong growth in 2011 at 6%, driven by domestic demand, investment, and exports. However, a slowdown is expected in 2012 due to external economic conditions and political instability.
• Inflation: Headline inflation stabilized at ~9% in late 2011, but core inflation remained below 5%. Inflation is expected to decline to 5% ± 1.5% by early 2013 due to falling energy prices.
• Trade Balance: Imports rose by 38% in 2011, while exports increased by 52%, leading to a deterioration in the trade balance.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to narrow gradually to 8% of GDP in the medium term, consistent with investment expansion and declining external debt.

Program Performance

• The program is broadly on track, with all quantitative performance criteria met except the general government deficit for end-September 2011, which was missed by 0.4% of GDP.
• The deficit for 2011 is expected to be within the budgeted 1.9% of GDP, after corrective measures such as intensified tax collection and reduced expenditures.
• The authorities requested a modification of the deficit performance criterion for end-March 2012 due to macroeconomic updates.

Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal adjustment is on track to complete by end-2012.
• Current spending is being curtailed, while capital expenditures are expected to increase by over 30%.
• New revenue sources such as corporate income tax and excise rate increases are being considered to support fiscal adjustment.
• Agricultural subsidies are being reformed to align with budget limits, and unpaid subsidies are being cleared.
• The education sector reform is expected to generate savings and improve efficiency, with a student-teacher ratio of 2/3 of the EU average.

Monetary Policy

• The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) began monetary policy easing in late 2011 due to declining inflation pressures.
• The policy interest rate was raised by 200 bps in mid-2011 and cut by 150 bps in late 2011.
• The required reserve ratio was increased from 11% to 14%.
• Staff supports continued easing and acceleration if disinflation is faster than expected.
• The NBM is vigilant in supervising weak banks and improving coordination with the Ministry of Finance.

Financial Sector Policies

• The banking system is generally sound with robust capital and ample liquidity.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) fell to 9.7% in October 2011 from 18% in July 2010.
• Two banks have weaknesses requiring close oversight: one is under special administration, and the other has weak lending practices.
• The NBM is strengthening the debt restructuring framework and disclosure of bank owners.
• The privatization of Banca de Economii is being accelerated to mitigate fiscal risks.

Structural Reforms and Poverty Reduction

• Structural reforms are supporting fiscal adjustment, aiding the most vulnerable, and promoting growth.
• The social assistance system is being reformed to means-test payments, with a 23% increase in funding for the new system.
• Heating assistance for vulnerable households is expected to increase by 54% in the 2011/12 heating season.
• Reforms to improve the business climate are on track, with Moldova advancing by 18 positions in the World Bank's Doing Business survey.
• A new National Development Strategy is being developed to cover the period until 2020, aiming to increase GDP growth by 12 percentage points and reduce the poverty rate to under 15%.

Key Program Issues and Outreach

• The program conditionality is being updated and extended, with new performance criteria and indicative targets proposed.
• Outreach efforts were made to parliamentarians, economic analysts, and civil society representatives to build consensus on reforms.
• The staff encouraged coordinated liquidity-draining operations and improved coordination between the NBM and Ministry of Finance.

Conclusion

The IMF staff views the Republic of Moldova's program as on track, with fiscal and structural reforms supporting macroeconomic stability and growth. While external and political risks remain, the reforms and buffers are expected to cushion adverse shocks. The authorities have committed to fiscal consolidation, financial sector stability, and structural improvements to enhance long-term economic prospects.