2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Staff_Report_for_the_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_Fifth_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Under_the_Three_75页_1mb

Summary of the Republic of Moldova Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation

Core Content

This document is the Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation, along with Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and includes Requests for Waivers for Non-Observance and Modification of Performance Criteria. It outlines the economic developments, policy discussions, and program implementation in the Republic of Moldova, as assessed by the IMF staff team during discussions held in Chișinău from May 3 to 17, 2012.

Main Views and Outcomes

The report highlights that Moldova's economy experienced a strong recovery following the 2009 crisis, driven by fiscal reforms, monetary policy adjustments, and structural reforms. However, the economic slowdown in 2012 was attributed to external factors, particularly the EU slowdown, and domestic challenges such as weaker remittances and capital inflows.

The IMF staff report was completed on September 17, 2012, and the views expressed are those of the staff team, not necessarily the IMF Executive Board. The report includes Public Information Notice (PIN) and Press Release, as well as additional documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Selected Issues.

Key Challenges and Policies

Key Challenges

• Fiscal sustainability: The large structural fiscal gap, which was previously covered by external assistance, remains a challenge as support is expected to decline.
• Inflation control: Inflation has decelerated, but there are concerns about falling below the target in the medium term.
• Financial and external stability: The state-controlled banking system faces risks due to nonperforming loans (NPLs) and capital inflow volatility.
• Structural reforms: Delays in reforms and political competition have affected progress, particularly in social assistance and pension system adjustments.

Key Policies

• Fiscal sustainability: The authorities aim to reduce the structural deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2012, with further reductions expected.
• Monetary policy: The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has implemented monetary easing, which is seen as appropriate to stabilize inflation and support economic recovery.
• Financial stability: The NBM is focusing on exchange rate management, liquidity provision, and deposit insurance to stabilize the financial sector.
• External risks: Moldova is highly exposed to external shocks, especially from the EU and Russia, due to its reliance on remittances, exports, and capital inflows.

Program Implementation

• The program is mostly on track, with most performance criteria and structural benchmarks met.
• However, the budget deficit and government expenditure arrears performance criteria were missed, as well as the debt restructuring structural benchmark.
• The authorities are requesting waivers and modifications for these missed criteria, citing macroeconomic updates and external factors.

Outlook and Risks

• The economy is expected to recover in 2013, supported by CIS demand, infrastructure investment, and increased productivity.
• However, external risks such as a strong intensification of the euro area crisis, world growth slowdown, and oil price increases pose serious downside risks.
• Domestic risks include slippages in structural reforms, political competition, and revenue shortfalls.

Risk Assessment Matrix

Policy Discussions

A. Reaching and Sustaining Fiscal Sustainability

• The 2012 budget was adjusted to address fiscal shortfalls and revenue underperformance.
• The structural deficit is expected to decrease from 4.8% of GDP in 2011 to 3.5% in 2012, and further to 2.3% in 2015.
• The pension system reform is critical to sustain fiscal sustainability and combat old-age poverty, including indexation of past earnings and raising the retirement age for women.
• Public administration reform is needed to reduce operational costs and improve public service delivery.
• Education sector reform is also key to improving quality and achieving fiscal savings.

B. Stabilizing Inflation and Developing the Inflation Targeting Framework

• The NBM has reduced the base rate by 550 basis points between November 2011 and February 2012.
• The monetary policy stance is seen as consistent with the 5% inflation target, though the authorities are cautious about further easing.
• Lending rates have not yet fully reflected the monetary easing, with banks holding large reserves and credit extension remaining stable.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and structural reforms in ensuring long-term economic sustainability. While the program is broadly on track, the authorities and staff have agreed on corrective measures to address missed targets and policy slippages. The IMF remains supportive of Moldova's efforts, but continued vigilance is needed to mitigate external risks and ensure fiscal sustainability in the medium term.