2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_Fifth_and_Sixth_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_Request_for_Waivers_for_Non_121页_1mb

Malawi: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Malawi, which was approved in July 2012. The reviews were conducted in 2014 and involved discussions with Malawi's authorities, including the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The document includes a Staff Report, Debt Sustainability Analysis, Press Release, Statement by the Executive Director, and various Annexes and Attachments that provide detailed policy discussions, quantitative targets, and performance criteria.

Key Issues and Main Points

1. Program Context and Background

• The ECF program, a 36-month arrangement worth SDR 104.1 million (150% of quota), was initially approved in 2012.
• SDR 52.06 million had been disbursed by the time of the fifth and sixth reviews.
• The "cashgate" scandal, discovered in October 2013, exposed significant weaknesses in Malawi's public financial management (PFM) system.
• The scandal led to donor budget support suspension, increased domestic financing, and currency depreciation.
• The 2014 elections resulted in a change of government, with President Peter Mutharika taking over from President Joyce Banda.

2. Performance under the Program

• The fifth and sixth reviews were delayed due to non-observance of performance criteria.
• Three out of seven performance criteria were not met for the fifth review, and two out of three for the sixth.
• The non-accumulation of external payment arrears and the ceiling on new non-concessional external debt were both missed.
• The accumulation of arrears and non-concessional loans were the main reasons for not meeting performance criteria.

3. Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth remained resilient at around 6% in 2014, supported by agriculture, trade, and communication sectors.
• Inflation remained high (23.8% in 2014), partly due to monetary policy and domestic financing.
• Current account deficits worsened due to declines in official transfers, reaching 5.1% of GDP in 2014.
• Reserve cover improved to 2.9 months of imports by the end of 2014 due to domestic debt restructuring and foreign exchange purchases.

4. Policy Discussions and Recommendations

• The new authorities reaffirmed their commitment to the original ECF program and its objectives.
• Key policy actions discussed include:
  • Fiscal adjustment to ensure the FY2014/15 budget meets its goals.
  • PFM reforms to restore confidence and address weaknesses exposed by the "cashgate" scandal.
  • Monetary policy measures to rein in inflation and stabilize expectations.
  • Financial sector reforms to strengthen regulatory frameworks.
• Informal macroeconomic targets were set for end-January 2015, with two out of three met.

5. Debt Sustainability and Risks

• Debt sustainability remains a concern due to increased public debt (up to 75.8% of GDP by end-2014).
• Domestic financing has been used to cover budget shortfalls, with a revised deficit of 5.9% of GDP.
• Downside risks include:
  • Institutional weaknesses in policy design and implementation.
  • Slower-than-expected disinflation.
  • Weak international tobacco prices.
  • Adverse weather affecting rain-fed agriculture.
• The flexible exchange rate is seen as a shock absorber in case of external shocks.

6. PFM Reforms and Strategy

• A new PFM strategy was adopted to address the shortcomings exposed by the "cashgate" scandal.
• The strategy includes:
  • Improved fiscal reporting through the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS).
  • Account reconciliation and commitment controls.
  • Regularization of domestic arrears through cash payments and securitization.
• The PFM reforms are a prerequisite for donor resumption of budget support.

7. Program Adjustments

• The ECF arrangement was extended by 6 months.
• Disbursement schedules were revised, with the sixth and seventh tranches totaling SDR 13.02 million becoming available upon completion of the fifth and sixth reviews.
• Performance criteria were modified to reflect new realities and donor conditions.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report (completed on March 5, 2015)
• Debt Sustainability Analysis
• Informational Annex
• Press Release (with a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board)
• Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
• Letter of Intent
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Summary of Actions and Outcomes

• Five convictions and asset recovery of MK 183 million have been made in relation to the "cashgate" scandal.
• PFM reforms are being implemented with IMF technical assistance and donor support.
• The flexible exchange rate and automatic fuel pricing mechanism are central to the economic recovery strategy.
• The fiscal adjustment in FY2014/15 includes cuts in current expenditures and increased domestic financing.
• The program extension and disbursement rephasing are intended to support program implementation and address performance shortfalls.

Conclusion

The fifth and sixth reviews under the ECF program highlight the challenges faced by Malawi in maintaining fiscal discipline and economic stability. The "cashgate" scandal significantly impacted the program implementation and donor support, leading to delays and performance shortfalls. However, the new government has shown commitment to restoring trust and addressing macroeconomic imbalances. The IMF has supported the revised budget and PFM reforms, and the program extension aims to facilitate recovery and debt sustainability.