2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Portugal_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_111页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Portugal's First Review Under the Extended Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the first review of Portugal's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program under the IMF Extended Arrangement, approved on May 20, 2011, as part of a €78 billion joint financing package with the European Union. The arrangement aims to revive growth, ensure fiscal and financial stability, and restore competitiveness in the country.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Program Status and Financing

A SDR 23.7 billion (€26 billion) arrangement was approved by the IMF.
The first tranche of SDR5.6 billion (€6.1 billion) was made available on May 24, 2011.
At the time of the first review, the available purchase amounted to SDR3.5 billion (about €3.8 billion).
All quantitative performance criteria and all but one structural benchmark were met.
The program financing includes new measures and safeguards to support the government's fiscal and financial stability goals.

2. Recent Developments

The new government showed strong support for the program, forming a majority coalition with the CDS party after the June 5 election.
A new unit (ESAME) was established to coordinate implementation of the program with the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Portugal.
The end-June fiscal deficit target was met, but expenditure overruns and SOE challenges require additional measures.
Structural reforms made good progress, with most end-June and end-July benchmarks met, and several ahead of schedule.
Bank capital levels have improved, with the Core Tier 1 ratio rising from 7.2% in September 2010 to 7.6% in March 2011.
The financial sector has made progress in capital strengthening, deleveraging, and transparency.

3. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

Real GDP is expected to contract by about 2% annually in 2011-12, with a cyclical rebound after 2013.
Unemployment is expected to peak in 2013 and recover slowly from 2014.
Current account deficit has narrowed, but external demand is weakening, and fiscal measures may intensify the pressure.
Global market turmoil has increased risk aversion, which could harm funding and growth.
Sovereign spreads have been volatile, reaching record highs in July due to Moody's downgrade and risk aversion.
The European Council's decision to ease EFSF loan conditions could reduce interest costs by 0.3–0.5% of GDP per year over the next three years.

4. Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

The fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 5.9% of GDP in 2011, 4.5% in 2012, and 3% in 2013.
The 2012 budget needs to be more balanced and targeted to close the expenditure gap.
The government has announced offsetting measures, including a one-time PIT surcharge, sales of concessions, and use of pension fund transfers.
Fiscal risks remain high, particularly from SOEs and PPPs, and structural reforms are crucial to ensure long-term sustainability.

B. Structural Fiscal Reform

Public financial management (PFM) needs to be strengthened to reduce arrears and expenditure overruns.
A two-pronged strategy to settle arrears and avoid new accumulation was agreed to be implemented by end-September.
The government is preparing a comprehensive strategy to overhaul the SOE sector, including cost reductions, tariff increases, and asset sales.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) includes annual cost-saving measures of EUR 550 million.
Arrears in the health sector have reached 1.1% of GDP, and structural pressures remain significant.

C. Financial Sector Policies

Financial stability is critical, and safeguards are in place to mitigate risks.
Banks are required to use market-based solutions to boost capital and regain access to wholesale markets.
The Bank of Portugal (BdP) is working on an orderly deleveraging process to avoid a credit crunch.
Government guarantees for bank bond issuance have been increased to €35 billion, and unused bank collateral is €28 billion, sufficient to cover net refinancing needs.
Credit to the private sector remains weak, especially for SMEs, and needs close monitoring.
The SDAF is a central tool for assessing bank solvency and deleveraging and ensuring consistency with macroeconomic goals.

Conclusion

The first review of Portugal's Extended Arrangement shows that the program is broadly on track, with fiscal and structural reforms progressing, although challenges remain. The IMF and EU support is crucial to address fiscal and financial risks, and the safeguards in place are effective in mitigating downside risks. The government's commitment to the program and the ongoing reforms are positive signs for long-term stability and growth.