2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Second_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Under_the_Three_57页_996kb

Summary of the Republic of Moldova: Second Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The Republic of Moldova's economy has largely recovered from the 2009 recession, with GDP growth of nearly 7 percent in 2010. Macroeconomic stability is improving, characterized by a stronger-than-expected fiscal adjustment, inflation kept under control, and financial conditions enhanced. However, political uncertainty remains, as the center-right coalition lacks the majority to secure a full mandate and faces internal tensions.

The main objectives for 2011 include advancing fiscal consolidation, maintaining inflation control amid external shocks, and promoting balanced growth. The program is on track, with all end-September performance criteria met and most end-December targets achieved, except for a minor deviation in reserve money due to strong economic growth. The authorities are requesting a waiver for end-March 2011 performance criteria due to unavailability of data.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Recovery and Outlook

• GDP rebounded by 6.9% in 2010, returning to pre-recession levels.
• Growth is expected to remain in the range of 4.5–5% over the next few years, driven by domestic demand and export expansion.
• Inflation is projected to stay around 7.5% in 2011, easing to 5% by end-2012.
• The current account deficit is expected to widen to 13% of GDP in 2011, then gradually decline to 10% by 2016.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget targets a headline deficit of 1.9% of GDP, reducing the structural deficit by 1 percentage point relative to 2010.
• Fiscal consolidation is expected to be more gradual after 2010 due to the overperformance of the previous year.
• Structural reforms, including public sector consolidation, social insurance improvements, and procurement reforms, are aimed at reducing current expenditure and improving efficiency.
• The education sector reform is expected to reduce public expenditure by 0.5% of GDP annually.
• Revenue is supported by excise hikes, updated local taxes, and the implementation of a new tax compliance strategy.
• Social spending will be increased to protect vulnerable populations against rising food and energy prices.

Monetary Policy

• The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has shifted its stance from supporting economic activity to anchoring inflation expectations.
• The NBM raised its policy rate from 7% to 8% and increased the reserve requirement ratio to 11% in early 2011.
• The NBM will continue to monitor money growth as an indicator of domestic demand and may take action if credit expansion accelerates.
• The NBM is open to accumulating more reserves if capital inflows exceed expectations, but will not resist sustained depreciation.

Financial Sector Policies

• Banks are generally well-capitalized and liquid, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios declining after mid-2010.
• A few banks still face high NPLs and low profitability, but are under close supervision.
• The failed Investprivatbank (IPB) is being resolved through a government plan that includes purchasing the loan from BEM, extending NBM loans, selling IPB assets, and increasing deposit insurance premiums.
• The resolution process is expected to be fiscally neutral in the long run.

Other Structural Reforms

• The government is committed to improving the business climate and promoting exports to reduce reliance on remittances.
• Compliance with EU veterinary and food safety standards is a key step toward market access.
• The government is reconsidering a wheat export ban and removing other trade barriers.
• Privatization efforts are being stepped up, including the denationalization of Moldtelecom, Air Moldova, and Banca de Economii.
• The energy sector remains a critical focus for reform, with efforts to ensure timely intercompany bill payments and cost recovery.

Program Issues

• The program design and monitoring mechanism will remain largely unchanged.
• The indicative target on reserve money will be discontinued after March 31, 2011.
• The 2011 budget will be passed as a prior action.
• New performance criteria and targets are proposed for June 30, 2011, September 30, 2011, December 31, 2011, and March 31, 2012.
• Structural conditionality includes phasing out early retirement privileges, reforming sick leave, and improving debt restructuring frameworks.

Staff Appraisal

• The economy is on a path of recovery, and the program is progressing well.
• The outlook is cautiously optimistic, though unemployment remains a concern.
• The authorities are making good progress in reducing poverty, with most indicators improving in 2009 despite the recession.
• The new National Development Strategy (2012–15) is expected to incorporate staff recommendations on poverty reduction and fiscal policy.

Conclusion

The Republic of Moldova has made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and implementing structural reforms. The fiscal consolidation is on track, and monetary policy is being adjusted to manage inflation and maintain financial stability. Political uncertainty and external risks remain challenges, but the authorities are actively working to address them. The program is expected to continue supporting balanced growth and fiscal sustainability.