IMF国际货币组织全球-Cote-d_39Ivoire_Fifth-Reviews-Under-the-Arrangement-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-and-Under-the-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility_98页_2mb

CÔTE D'IVOIRE: Fifth Reviews Under ECF and EFF Arrangements

Core Content

The IMF completed the fifth reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Côte d'Ivoire on June 14, 2019, and approved a disbursement of US$133.9 million (SDR 96.786 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangements to SDR 553.6 million (US$765.8 million). These reviews were based on discussions held in March 2019 and followed the three-year ECF/EFF arrangements approved in December 2016.

Main Points

• Economic Outlook: Côte d'Ivoire's growth is projected at 7.5 percent in 2019 and 2020, gradually declining to 6.5 percent in 2024. The business environment continues to improve, and private investment and consumption are expected to remain robust.
• Inflation: Expected to remain low, with a moderate acceleration in 2018:H2 due to rising food and fuel prices.
• Current Account: The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.75 percent of GDP by 2024, driven by improved terms of trade, higher value-added exports, and stronger service exports.
• Fiscal Performance: The 2018 budget deficit target of 4.0 percent of GDP was met, and the authorities reaffirmed the 3 percent of GDP deficit target for 2019. Fiscal revenues underperformed by 0.3 percent of GDP due to lower fuel tax and non-oil import duty collections, but this was offset by reduced investment and current expenditure.
• Debt Sustainability: Public debt is expected to remain under control, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to decrease to 49.6 percent by 2024. Prudent debt management and limiting contingent liabilities are essential to maintain sustainability.
• Structural Reforms: Five out of six structural benchmarks were met by end-2018, with one from end-2017 implemented with delay. Reforms include strengthening revenue administration, improving public financial management, consolidating the banking sector, promoting inclusive growth, enhancing the business climate, and reinforcing the statistical apparatus.

Key Policies for 2019

A. Preserving Macroeconomic Stability

• The authorities reaffirmed the 3 percent of GDP budget deficit target for 2019, aligning with the WAEMU convergence norm.
• Fiscal consolidation will be achieved through increased revenue and expenditure rationalization.

B. Supporting Fiscal Discipline Through Structural Reforms

• Revenue administration reforms are ongoing, with efforts to broaden the tax base and increase tax mobilization.
• The government is working to rationalize tax exemptions and improve the efficiency of public enterprises.

C. Preserving Debt Sustainability

• Continued prudent management of public debt is necessary, including limiting contingent liabilities.
• Borrowing policy must carefully assess the cost and benefits of new loans to ensure debt remains sustainable.

D. Strengthening the Financial Sector

• The banking sector remains stable, with ongoing reforms to improve financial soundness and leverage the economy.
• The government is working to enhance the financial system's resilience and efficiency.

E. Nurturing the Private Sector

• The private sector is a key driver of growth, with continued emphasis on improving the business environment and supporting investment.
• Policies aim to foster a conducive climate for private investment and business development.

Key Information

• IMF Arrangements: The ECF/EFF arrangements were approved in 2016 with a total access of SDR 650.4 million (US$889.7 million).
• Program Objectives: The program aims to support inclusive growth, reduce poverty, ensure fiscal discipline, enhance domestic revenue mobilization, and achieve a sustainable balance of payments position.
• IMF Technical Assistance: Côte d'Ivoire is benefiting from extensive IMF technical assistance to support structural reforms and economic policies.
• Economic Indicators: The country has experienced strong GDP growth since 2012, averaging 8.7 percent over 2012-2018. The business environment has improved significantly, with Côte d'Ivoire ranking among the top reformers in the World Bank's Doing Business report.

Summary Table of Key Indicators (2016–2024)

Risks and Challenges

• The political context has become more complex and uncertain ahead of the 2020 presidential elections.
• Political instability could limit growth-enhancing public spending and revenue mobilization efforts.
• Global economic slowdown, rising protectionism, and lower investment risk appetite could exert downward pressure on external demand and investment.

Conclusion

The IMF's fifth review for Côte d'Ivoire concluded successfully, enabling the disbursement of US$133.9 million. The country's economic performance has been strong, with continued growth and improved macroeconomic stability. Structural reforms and fiscal discipline are critical for sustaining this momentum and achieving long-term economic goals. The authorities are committed to maintaining a budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP and ensuring debt sustainability through prudent borrowing and revenue mobilization. The business environment has improved significantly, and the country is on track to become a leading investment destination in Africa.