高盛-2024年美国经济展望（英）-2023.11-19页_284kb

Goldman Sachs 2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent

1. Economic Performance 2023

   • US economy defied recession fears and made progress toward "soft landing."
   • GDP growth exceeded expectations (now forecasts 1.8% Q4/Q4 in 2024), but labor market rebalancing and inflation softened despite strong demand.
   • Inflation peaked sharply in the pandemic but is now on "final descent"; core PCE expected at ~2.4% by Dec 2024.

2. Inflation and Policy

   • "Hard part" of inflation fight ended; disinflation driven by supply-side fixes (e.g., auto/rental markets) and normalized wage expectations.
   • Fed first rate cut expected in 2024Q4 (core PCE < 2.5% YoY); gradual cuts to 3.5–3.75% by 2026, signaling a higher equilibrium rate than prior cycles.

3. GDP Growth Forecast 2024

   • Real GDP growth forecast 1.8% (Q4/Q4), supported by moderate consumption, flat residential investment, slowed business investment (CHIPS Act subsidies fade), and trade recovery.
   • Consumption driven by ~1% real wage growth and interest income, offset partially by a 1pp savings rate rise.

4. Key Risks

   • Geopolitical conflicts and oil price spikes may delay inflation normalization.
   • Abrupt transition to higher interest rates risks corporate debt unwinding, but Fed flexibility allows response to growth shocks.
   • Recession probability stabilizes at ~15% (vs. consensus 48%).

5. Fed Path

   • Rate cuts optional but expected due to lower inflation; equilibrium rate higher (3.5–3.75%) reflecting stronger structural headwinds.
   • Scenario analysis incorporates risks of "insurance cuts" (assured reductions if shocks occur).

Summary
Goldman Sachs projects a "soft landing" scenario with subdued recession risk by late 2023, driven by deflationary pressures stemming from labor market rebalancing, reduced inflation expectations, and supply-side adjustments. Economic growth remains resilient despite policy tightening, with gradual monetary easing anticipated once inflation cools below 2.5%. Key risks include geopolitical disruptions and vulnerabilities in debt markets, with expectations of a historically elevated interest rate equilibrium.