20230519-天风证券-2023年4月中债登和上清所托管数据点评_广义基金配置力量强势回归_11页_748kb

Fixed Income Bond Custody Data Summary

This report analyzes the 2023年04月 bond托管 (custody) data from China's bond markets, highlighting key trends in bond holdings. The main focus is on institutional changes and overall market conditions.

• Institutional Changes:

  • 广义基金 (Broad Money Funds): Experienced a strong rebound in configuration power, with a net increase of 7,427 billion yuan in bond custody scale— the first such increase since October 2022. Specific additions included significant rises in policy性银行债 (policy banks bonds), 国债 (national bonds), 超短融 (ultra-short-term commercial paper), and 地方政府债 (local government bonds). Overall, this translates to substantial configurations in both interest rate and credit bonds.
  • 商业银行 (Commercial Banks)：Continued net increases but at a reduced pace, adding 3,422 billion yuan mainly in local government bonds and national bonds. However, they slightly decreased holdings of policy banks bonds and certain credit bonds.
  • Other Institutions: For instance, 信用社 (rural credit cooperatives) increased holdings mainly in interbank certificates of deposit, while 保险机构 (insurance firms) showed mixed movements with net decreases in interest rate bonds.

• Bond Types:

  • 利率债 (Interest Rate Bonds): Primarily driven by increases in local government bonds and national bonds. Total interest rate bond holdings rose, with broad funds and commercial banks leading as major contributors.
  • 信用债 (Credit Bonds): Ultra-short-term commercial paper was the largest incremental segment, with significant net gains. Overall credit bond custody increased modestly amid reductions in some sub-sectors.

• Market Conditions:

  • Funding and Leverage: Money market remained stable and宽松 (lax) with leveraged levels dropping slightly, reflecting low interest rates and manageable liquidity.
  • Overall Trend: The data underscores a shift toward risk-on behavior by key funds amid a cautiously optimistic market outlook, influenced by stable policy and monetary easing expectations.

Risk and Outlook: Potential risks include unexpected changes in institutional behavior, policy shifts, or macroeconomic downturns. The market is expected to maintain relative stability in the short term, with flows likely driven by ongoing monetary support measures.