20250605-东海期货-研究所晨会观点精萃_5页_370kb

Market Summary

Overview

Report highlights global market dynamics driven by US economic data weakness leading to USD dollar index weakening and elevated global risk appetite. Chinese PMI data shows economic output expansion, fueling short-term domestic risk sentiment. Trade negotiations and policy developments are key focus areas. Overall, markets exhibit cautious sentiment with recommendations favoring观望 strategies.

Macro & Global Economy

USADP employment data missed expectations, shrinking from 62k to 37k, and ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 49.9, indicating contraction after nearly a year. Dollar weakening supports risk assets globally. China's May PMI rebound signals economic acceleration. US-China trade talks signal potential short-term lift in risk appetite.

Stock Indices

Stock indices show short-term volatility. US-China trade developments and China's economic recovery underpin the outlook. Cautious do not rely on short-term entries.

Precious Metals

Gold prices climbed to ~3397 USD/oz due to USD weakness, with ISM data softening risk. Short-term range-bound with long-term potential.

Black Metals

Steel and ferroalloys posted rebounds from lows; demand remains challenged but inventory declines support short-term hesitations. Iron ore sees pricing range-bound amid mixed supply-demand views.

Energy & Chemicals

Crude oil fell on Saudi Arabia's production hike expectations. Asphalt and PX show structural pressures; PTA and EG face weak demand tails. Energy markets cautious with supply surplus risks.

Non-Ferrous Metals

Copper and aluminum prices fluctuate based on trade talks; tin shows tentative stabilization amid supply fears. High tariffs could weigh on risk appetite.

Agriculture

US大豆 gains from USD weakness, but weather and trade factors limit upside. Palm oil faces over-supply risks; pork and corn prices mixed, influenced by seasonal demand and inventory trends.

Key themes include USD-driven risk sentiment shifts and careful positioning due to policy and economic uncertainties.