20220317-招银国际-平安好医生-01833.HK-Strategy_2.0_to_fuel_long-term_revenue_growth_4页_940kb

报告摘要

PA Good Doctor (1833 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

PA Good Doctor (PAGD) is a healthcare company that has introduced Strategy 2.0 to drive long-term revenue growth. The strategy includes the development of Health Management Organizations (HMOs) for corporate clients, family doctor membership services for individual users, and an O2O (online-to-offline) model to enhance service delivery and user engagement.

In 2021, PAGD reported revenue of RMB7,334mn, up 6.8% YoY, and a net loss of RMB1,538mn, which was in line with forecasts. However, the gross profit margin dropped to 23.3% in 2022, primarily due to reduced client ad budgets and a rebound in membership service fulfillment rates. The company's registered users increased by 13.4% YoY to 423mn as of Dec 2021, while paying users rose by 21.9% to 39mn, with a conversion rate of 24.8%.

PAGD's online mall GMV reached RMB6,120mn, up 11.8% YoY. The company has also benefited from favorable government policies, such as the National Health Commission's guidance to promote family doctor services, aiming to cover 75% of families by 2035.

Main Points

Strategy 2.0 focuses on corporate clients, HMOs, and family doctor services.
Revenue growth is projected to be 6% in FY22E, 24% in FY23E, and 21% in FY24E.
Net losses are expected to decrease from RMB1,538mn in FY21A to RMB159mn in FY24E.
Marketing and admin expenses as a % of revenue dropped from 52.5% in 1H21 to 45.5% in 2H21.
Paying user conversion rate increased significantly to 24.8%.
Corporate clients accounted for 48% of total traffic in 1H21.
Family doctor services connect HMO and O2O models, offering customized health management.

Key Financial Highlights

Metric	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Revenue (RMB mn)	6,866	7,334	7,741	9,564	11,607
YoY growth (%)	36	7	6	24	21
Net income (RMB mn)	(948)	(1,538)	(1,193)	(812)	(159)
EPS (RMB)	(0.92)	(1.39)	(1.06)	(0.72)	(0.14)
P/S (x)	2.3	2.1	2.0	1.6	1.3
ROE	(7.4)	(10.3)	(8.8)	(6.4)	(1.3)

Valuation and Investment Outlook

Target Price (TP): HK$28.57 (down from previous TP of HK$57.00)
Current Price: HK$17.54
Price Target Upside: +62.89%
DCF Model (9-year): WACC of 12.9%, terminal growth rate of 3.0%
Equity Value (RMB mn): RMB26,136
Price per share (HK$): HK$28.57
CMB International Global Markets (CMBIGM) maintains a BUY rating for PAGD, indicating potential returns of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Shareholding and Financials

Shareholding Structure:
- Ping An Insurance: 38.43%
- Management: 8.59%
- Hopson: 9.02%
- Other shareholders: 43.96%
Stock Data:
- Market Cap: HK$19,808 mn
- 52-week High/Low: HK$105.90 / HK$15.18
Operating Efficiency:
- ARPU (average revenue per user) for HMO is significantly higher than for the traditional model.
- Marketing and admin expenses have decreased as a % of revenue.

Risk and Disclaimer

The report is not tailored to individual investors and is based on publicly available information.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
CMBIGM does not assume liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on this report.
The report is intended for specific investors in certain jurisdictions, such as major US institutional investors, UK investors under Article 19(5), and Singapore investors under the Financial Advisers Act.