20230713-招银国际-平安好医生-01833.HK-1H23E_preview__Expecting_Strategy_2.0_to_gain_momentum_in_post-pandemic_periods_5页_1mb

PA Good Doctor (PAGD) 1H23E outlook expects a revenue decline of 7.0% YoY due to proactive reduction of low-synergy businesses under Strategy 2.0. The company is positioned to see positive business growth from 2H23E onward, driven by post-pandemic normalization in China and increased online healthcare service penetration. Gross profit margin improved to 27.4% in 2022 half-year from 23.3%, primarily from higher high-margin services, while adjusted net losses are forecast to narrow through cost savings and operational efficiencies. Strategic transition focuses on expanding enterprise health management services, with current penetration at around 3% of PA Group's ecosystem, a growth opportunity for future expansion. Maintain BUY rating with target price HK$23.89, based on a 10-year DCF model, expecting revenue slight decline in 2023E but recovery to +12.6% and +14.9% YoY growth in 2024E and 2025E. Financial projections show improved profitability metrics, including adjusted net margins. Valuation highlights positive long-term potential in China's online healthcare sector amid recovery challenges.