2018年-数据局_世界经济论坛：全球风险报告2018英文版_80页_8mb

The Global Risks Report 2018: 13th Edition Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2018 by the World Economic Forum provides an in-depth analysis of the most significant risks and trends affecting global development over the next decade. It highlights the increasing complexity of global risks, emphasizing the need for systemic thinking and multistakeholder collaboration to address them.

Main Points

Global Risks Overview

The report identifies a range of risks across four categories: Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, and Societal. It includes both likelihood and impact rankings, with the top 5 risks in terms of likelihood and impact.

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood (2018)

1. Extreme weather events
2. Natural disasters
3. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
4. Cyberattacks
5. Large-scale involuntary migration

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact (2018)

1. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
2. Weapons of mass destruction
3. Water crises
4. Major natural disasters
5. Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases

Key Trends Influencing Global Risks

The report also highlights key trends that are shaping global development:

1. Rising income and wealth disparity
2. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
3. Cyber dependency and vulnerabilities
4. Automation and digitalization
5. Geopolitical power shifts

Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) Highlights

• 73% of respondents expect trade tensions to increase in 2018.
• 93% of respondents anticipate worsening political or economic confrontations between major powers.
• 7% of responses indicate a reduction in risk, while 59% point to an increase.
• 53% of countries have seen an increase in income inequality over the past three decades.

Environmental Risks

Environmental risks have gained increasing prominence in recent years. The report notes that all five environmental risks were ranked higher than average for both likelihood and impact in 2018. This includes the first rise in CO₂ emissions in four years, high-impact hurricanes, and extreme temperatures. Environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss, pollution, and agricultural strain are increasingly seen as threats to global stability.

Cybersecurity Risks

Cybersecurity threats have become more prevalent and disruptive. Ransomware attacks have been a major concern, with 64% of malicious emails in 2017 being related to ransomware. Notable attacks include WannaCry and NotPetya, which caused significant financial losses. The report also warns of the potential for cyberattacks to target critical infrastructure, raising concerns about the fragility of global systems.

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical tensions have intensified, with a decline in multilateralism and an increase in unilateralist policies. The United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has contributed to a weakening of global institutions. This has created a risk of trade tensions spilling over into geopolitical strains.

Societal Risks

Societal risks, including inequality, unemployment, and political polarization, continue to be significant. Income inequality remains a key driver of global risks, with automation and digitalization exacerbating structural unemployment. The gender parity gap has also widened, indicating broader societal issues that could lead to political instability.

Economic Risks

Economic risks, while less prominent than in previous years, are still a concern. The report notes unsustainable asset prices, elevated indebtedness, and financial system strains as ongoing issues. China's slowing economy and rising personal debt are highlighted as factors that could lead to economic disruptions in the future.

Key Information

• The Global Risks Perception Survey is a key tool used to identify and rank global risks, with over 1,000 survey responses from the World Economic Forum's multistakeholder communities.
• The report introduces three new sections: Future Shocks, Hindsight, and Risk Reassessment, which provide a broader analytical perspective on global risks.
• Future Shocks includes 10 potential breakdowns, such as democratic collapses and cyber conflicts, serving as a warning against complacency.
• Hindsight revisits past risks, such as antimicrobial resistance, youth unemployment, and digital wildfires (fake news), to assess how well we have addressed them.
• Risk Reassessment features insights from experts on how cognitive bias and systemic resilience should be considered in risk management.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2018 underscores the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of global risks. It calls for systemic thinking, collaboration, and proactive measures to address the growing challenges. The report highlights the need for multilateral cooperation, the risks of technological and economic disruptions, and the importance of addressing inequality and cybersecurity threats to ensure global stability and resilience.