2018全球风险报告（英文版）_78页_8mb

The Global Risks Report 2018: Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2018 (13th Edition), published by the World Economic Forum, highlights the most pressing global risks and trends in terms of likelihood and impact over a 10-year horizon. The report emphasizes the increasing complexity, interconnectedness, and systemic nature of global risks, urging for systems thinking and multistakeholder collaboration to address them effectively.

Main Trends and Risks

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood (2018)

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact (2018)

Key Observations

• Economic Risks: While economic risks have declined in prominence, they remain a significant concern. Issues such as asset price collapses, slowing Chinese economy, and chronic fiscal imbalances continue to be seen as major threats.
• Environmental Risks: Environmental risks have grown in both likelihood and impact. Extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and climate change are increasingly seen as critical challenges.
• Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions, including the rise of unilateralist policies and the erosion of multilateral institutions, are a growing concern. The report notes the impact of the Trump administration on global agreements like the Paris Agreement and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA).
• Cybersecurity Risks: Cyberattacks have become a major driver of global risks, with increasing prevalence and disruptive potential. The report highlights the risks to critical infrastructure and the financial impact of cyber breaches.
• Societal Risks: Societal polarization and inequality are significant drivers of global risks. The gender parity gap and issues related to fairness and justice are noted as key concerns.

Main Points

• The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of global risks, noting that they are increasingly complex and systemic.
• Complacency is a danger, as the world has become more aware of environmental and cybersecurity threats.
• Systemic breakdown is a growing risk, particularly in the context of climate change, inequality, and geopolitical instability.
• The World Economic Forum calls for collaboration between governments, businesses, and civil society to address these risks.
• The report introduces new sections such as Future Shocks, Hindsight, and Risk Reassessment, which provide a broader analytical perspective on global risks.

Emerging Concerns

• Automation and digitalization are contributing to inequality and unemployment, which are increasingly seen as interconnected risks.
• Identity politics and cultural tensions are exacerbating domestic and international political instability.
• Multilateralism is under threat due to the rise of unilateralist policies, which could lead to geopolitical instability and trade tensions.
• The World Trade Organization (WTO) is at risk due to the blockage of appointments to its appellate body, which could weaken the global trading system.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2018 underscores the need for a systems-based approach to global challenges. It highlights that the world is facing a mix of economic, environmental, geopolitical, and societal risks, which are becoming more interconnected and systemic. The report encourages multistakeholder dialogue and collaboration to build resilience and address these risks effectively.