2021全球风险报告（英文版）-世界经济论坛-2021-97页_8mb

The Global Risks Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2021 is the 16th edition of a report published by the World Economic Forum, focusing on the risks and consequences of widening inequalities and societal fragmentation in the post-pandemic world. The report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), completed by over 650 members of the World Economic Forum's leadership communities. It highlights the interconnections between various global risks, including economic, environmental, geopolitical, and technological, and their potential impact on global stability and development.

Main Viewpoints

• The pandemic has accelerated inequality: The economic and health impacts of the pandemic have disproportionately affected vulnerable groups and countries, increasing the risk of social cohesion erosion, youth disillusionment, and digital inequality.
• Digital divides and technology adoption are major concerns: The rapid shift to digitalization has exposed gaps in access and capability, threatening to deepen societal and economic disparities.
• Climate change remains a critical long-term risk: Despite the temporary reduction in emissions during the pandemic, climate action failure is still the most impactful and second most likely long-term risk.
• Geopolitical tensions and instability are on the rise: Middle powers, which are crucial for global cooperation, are facing challenges due to geopolitical fragmentation and interstate conflict.
• Economic fragility and industrial transformation are key issues: The post-pandemic economic landscape is expected to be polarized, with some economies recovering while others face stagnation or collapse.
• The need for better risk management and resilience building: The report emphasizes the importance of strategic foresight, effective communication, and public-private partnerships in preparing for future risks.

Key Information

Risks by Likelihood

• Extreme weather
• Climate action failure
• Human environmental damage
• Infectious diseases
• Biodiversity loss
• Digital power concentration
• Digital inequality
• Interstate relations fracture
• Cybersecurity failure
• Livelihood crises

Risks by Impact

• Infectious diseases
• Climate action failure
• Weapons of mass destruction
• Biodiversity loss
• Natural resource crises
• Human environmental damage
• Livelihood crises
• Extreme weather
• Debt crises
• IT infrastructure breakdown

Emerging Concerns

• Youth disillusionment: Young people have faced significant disruptions and are particularly vulnerable to missing out on future opportunities.
• Digital inequality: The growing gap in access to digital technologies is expected to worsen societal divisions and hinder an inclusive recovery.
• State and multilateralism collapse: These are identified as critical long-term threats, especially in a world where geopolitical tensions are rising.

Economic Impact

• The global economy experienced its deepest peacetime crisis, with a 4.4% contraction in 2020.
• China was the only G-20 economy to grow in 2020, while France, Germany, the UK, and the US saw significant declines.
• Unemployment and business confidence have been severely affected, with the most severe impacts in Latin America and the Euro area.

Health Fallout

• Over 100 million people have contracted the virus, and more than 2 million have died.
• Long-term health effects, such as fatigue, psychological distress, and chronic conditions, are still being studied and are expected to have lasting consequences.
• Healthcare systems have been overwhelmed, with shortages of medical supplies and mental health issues among professionals.

Strategic Recommendations

• Enhance resilience: Through better risk communication, strategic foresight, and public-private partnerships.
• Invest in risk champions: To promote national leadership and international cooperation.
• Address inequality: Both economic and social, to ensure a fair and inclusive recovery.
• Strengthen global cooperation: Especially in the context of climate change and technological development.

Conclusion

The report underscores that the world is facing a fractured future, driven by the pandemic's long-term effects, deepening inequalities, and rising geopolitical tensions. It calls for a collective and integrated approach to managing risks and building resilience, with a focus on inclusive growth, technological inclusivity, and global cooperation. The insights from the GRPS and the report's analysis provide a roadmap for decision-makers to navigate the complex landscape of global risks and ensure a sustainable and equitable recovery.