世界经济论坛-2018全球风险报告（英文）-2018.1-80页-8mb

The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition by the World Economic Forum provides an in-depth analysis of the most pressing global risks and trends, emphasizing the growing complexity and interconnectedness of these challenges. The report highlights the increasing prominence of environmental and cybersecurity risks, while also addressing economic, geopolitical, and societal concerns.

Main Points

1. Global Risks Overview

• The report identifies systemic risks that are increasingly complex, interconnected, and cascading.
• These risks include environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal, and technological dimensions.
• The report warns against complacency, as risks can crystallize rapidly and cause significant disruptions.

2. Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood (2018)

3. Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact (2018)

4. Key Trends and Risks

• Environmental Risks:
  • Biodiversity loss at mass-extinction rates.
  • Rising CO₂ emissions and extreme weather events.
  • Agricultural systems under strain.
  • Pollution of air and sea as a growing health threat.
• Cybersecurity Risks:
  • Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and disruptive.
  • Ransomware attacks accounted for 64% of all malicious emails in 2017.
  • Risks to critical infrastructure and strategic sectors are increasing.
• Economic Risks:
  • Persistent inequality and unfairness.
  • High levels of personal debt and inadequate savings.
  • Risks of another financial crisis and systemic failures.
  • Automation and digitalization are contributing to structural unemployment.
• Geopolitical Risks:
  • Rising nationalism and populism.
  • Decline in multilateral cooperation.
  • Increased military tensions and potential flashpoints.
  • The United States' withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
• Societal Risks:
  • Societal polarization remains a key driver of global risks.
  • Concerns about inequality and fairness are linked to broader societal issues.
  • Gender parity gap widened in 2017.
  • Sexual harassment continues to be a major societal concern.

5. New Sections in the Report

• Future Shocks: Highlights the need to prepare for sudden, disruptive events that could cause irreversible damage.
• Hindsight: Reviews past risks and responses, including antimicrobial resistance, youth unemployment, and "digital wildfires" (fake news).
• Risk Reassessment: Offers insights from risk experts on how evolving risk understanding impacts decision-making in various sectors.

Key Information

• The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) is conducted annually, with around 1,000 responses from the World Economic Forum's multistakeholder communities.
• 73% of respondents expect an increase in risks related to the erosion of multilateral trade rules and agreements.
• 93% of respondents anticipate worsening political or economic confrontations between major powers in 2018.
• 7% of respondents expect a reduction in global risks, while 59% expect an increase.
• The World Trade Organization (WTO) faces a significant institutional risk due to U.S. obstruction of its appellate body, which could cease functioning by 2019.
• Automation and digitalization are reshaping the labor market and contributing to rising inequality and structural unemployment.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2018 underscores the urgent need for systems thinking and multistakeholder collaboration to address the complex, interconnected risks facing the world. It highlights the growing importance of environmental and cybersecurity risks, while also emphasizing the need for renewed economic and political stability. The report serves as a call to action for global actors to work together to prevent systemic breakdowns and build a more resilient future.