2011年-WEF世界经济论坛_Global_Risks2011Sixth_Edition_60页_5mb

报告摘要

Global Risks 2011 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition is a comprehensive report that identifies and analyzes 37 global risks, emphasizing their interconnectedness and the need for a coordinated response. The report is produced in collaboration with leading organizations such as Marsh & McLennan Companies, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Wharton Center for Risk Management, and Zurich Financial Services. It serves as a foundational document for the Risk Response Network (RRN), aiming to enhance global resilience through multistakeholder collaboration.

Main Risks Categorised

Economic Risks

Asset price collapse
Extreme commodity price volatility
Extreme consumer price volatility
Extreme energy price volatility
Fiscal crises
Global imbalances and currency volatility
Infrastructure fragility
Liquidity/credit crunch
Regulatory failures
Retrenchment from globalization
Slowing Chinese economy (<6%)

Environmental Risks

Air pollution
Biodiversity loss
Climate change
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
Flooding
Ocean governance
Storms and cyclones

Societal Risks

Chronic diseases
Demographic challenges
Economic disparity
Food security
Infectious diseases
Migration
Water security

Geopolitical Risks

Corruption
Fragile states
Geopolitical conflict
Global governance failures
Illicit trade
Organized crime
Space security
Terrorism
Weapons of mass destruction

Technological Risks

Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Online data and information security
Threats from new technologies

Key Risks in Focus

1. The Macroeconomic Imbalances Nexus

Arises from the tension between the rising wealth and influence of emerging economies and the high levels of debt in advanced economies.
Savings and trade imbalances are increasingly unsustainable, creating long-term fiscal pressure.
Challenges: Coordinated global action is needed, but conflicting state interests make this difficult.

2. The Illegal Economy Nexus

Encompasses risks like state fragility, illicit trade, organized crime, and corruption.
Estimated value of global illicit trade in 2009: US $1.3 trillion, and it is on the rise.
Consequences: Undermine the rule of law, trap countries in poverty and instability.
Need: International cooperation on both supply and demand sides.

3. The Water-Food-Energy Nexus

Rapid population growth and increasing prosperity create unsustainable pressures on resources.
Demand for water, food, and energy is expected to rise by 30–50% in the next two decades.
Short-term responses to these issues can lead to long-term sustainability problems.
Risk of consequences: Social and political instability, geopolitical conflict, and environmental damage.

Risks to Watch

Five risks are highlighted due to their high perceived variance and low confidence, and potential for severe, unexpected, or underappreciated consequences:

Cyber-security issues: Including cyber theft and the potential for full-scale cyber warfare.
Demographic challenges: Affecting fiscal pressures in advanced economies and social stability in emerging ones.
Resource security issues: Causing extreme volatility and sustained increases in energy and commodity prices.
Retrenchment from globalization: Driven by populist reactions to economic disparity.
Weapons of mass destruction: Especially the risk of renewed nuclear proliferation.

Cross-Cutting Global Risks

1. Economic Disparity

Definition: Wealth and income gaps within and between countries threaten social and political stability and economic development.
Impact: Influences chronic diseases, infectious diseases, illicit trade, migration, food security, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.
Drivers: Climate change, global governance failures, and inequality in access to resources.
Data Insight: Inequality in real income growth between top and bottom quintiles in developed countries was twice as high between 1980s and 2000s.

2. Global Governance Failures

Definition: Failures in international cooperation and institutions, such as the WTO and Copenhagen Climate Conference, hinder effective risk response.
Impact: Inhibits the ability to manage global risks and reduce their likelihood and severity.
Paradox: While global governance is crucial for managing risks, divergent interests, conflicting incentives, and differing norms make it difficult to achieve.

Main Views and Findings

The global risk landscape is increasingly complex and interdependent, requiring a more holistic approach to risk management.
Economic disparity and global governance failures are the most highly connected risks, with significant implications for other global risks.
Interconnectedness is a defining feature of global risks, and strategies must consider these linkages to avoid unintended consequences.
Resilience is a key objective, and the report encourages stakeholders to embrace change as an opportunity for innovation and growth.
The Risk Response Network (RRN) aims to foster collaboration among global leaders to address these risks effectively.

Conclusion

Global Risks 2011 highlights the interconnected nature of risks and the need for proactive, coordinated, and long-term strategies to manage them. It underscores the role of global governance and economic equity in shaping the global risk environment. The report calls for a collective effort to build a more secure, innovative, and resilient global system.

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