世界经济论坛：2022年全球风险报告_117页_5mb

The Global Risks Report 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2022 (17th Edition), published by the World Economic Forum, highlights the growing global risks that stem from economic, societal, environmental and technological challenges. It emphasizes the divergence in recovery from the pandemic, the disorderly climate transition, increased cyber vulnerabilities, barriers to migration, and competition in space. The report also underscores the importance of resilience and cooperation in addressing these risks.

Main Findings

Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) 2021-2022

• Societal and environmental risks are perceived as the most concerning in the short and medium term.
• Social cohesion erosion, livelihood crises, and mental health deterioration are seen as the top societal risks that have worsened since the pandemic began.
• Environmental risks are ranked as the five most critical long-term threats, with "climate action failure", "extreme weather", and "biodiversity loss" as the top three most severe risks over the next decade.
• Technological risks, such as "digital inequality" and "cybersecurity failure", are also critical in the short and medium term but fall back in rankings over the long term.
• "Debt crises" and "geoeconomic confrontations" are among the most severe risks over the next 10 years.
• Only 11% of respondents believe the global recovery will accelerate over the next three years.
• 84% of GRPS respondents are either concerned or worried about the world's outlook.

Divergent Economic Recovery

• The pandemic has created a divergent economic recovery, with some countries recovering rapidly due to vaccination progress, digitalization, and new growth opportunities.
• However, many countries are still struggling with low vaccination rates, health system stress, digital divides, and stagnant job markets.
• Half of the world's population remains unvaccinated, and 40% are still offline.
• Inequality is widening, with 51 million more people projected to live in extreme poverty by 2024 compared to the pre-pandemic trend.

Climate Transition

• "Climate action failure" is ranked as the number one long-term threat.
• Climate change is already causing droughts, fires, floods, resource scarcity, and species loss.
• A disorderly climate transition, characterized by divergent national and sectoral approaches, risks exacerbating inequalities and heightening geopolitical tensions.
• Achieving net zero by 2050 is likely to be disorderly due to the complexity of the transition and insufficient current commitments.

Digital Dependencies and Cyber Vulnerabilities

• Growing digital dependency has intensified cybersecurity threats.
• Malware and ransomware attacks increased by 358% and 435% respectively in 2020.
• Cybersecurity threats are outpacing societies' ability to prevent or respond to them.
• Unilateral approaches to cybersecurity risk divergence rather than cooperation among nations.

Barriers to Migration

• Involuntary migration is a top long-term concern.
• 60% of respondents believe international mitigation efforts in migration and refugees are not started or in early development.
• Economic hardship, climate change, and political instability are driving migration pressures.
• Higher barriers to migration could harm remittances, which are a critical lifeline for developing countries.
• Migration may exacerbate international tensions and increase humanitarian crises.

Crowding and Competition in Space

• Space exploration is increasing, creating new opportunities but also risks.
• Growing militarization and weaponization in space are signaling new risks.
• New commercial satellite entrants are disrupting traditional influence over the global space commons.
• Unregulated space activity could lead to collisions, space debris, and international tensions.
• Limited global governance and diverging national policies risk escalating geopolitical tensions.

Resilience and Collaboration

• Resilience is key to managing global risks.
• Resilience requires restoring trust, galvanizing leaders, and finding new collaboration opportunities.
• Governments, businesses, and communities must align agendas for a whole-of-society approach.
• Strategies such as grounding resilience analyses in key delivery requirements, appreciating systemic vulnerabilities, and embracing diverse approaches can help build better resilience.

Key Risks Identified

• Climate action failure
• Extreme weather
• Biodiversity loss
• Debt crises
• Geoeconomic confrontations
• Digital inequality
• Cybersecurity failure
• Involuntary migration
• Infectious diseases
• Mental health deterioration

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2022 underscores the need for global cooperation and resilience in the face of diverging recovery paths, climate challenges, cybersecurity threats, migration pressures, and space competition. It highlights the importance of addressing inequality, enhancing digital safety, and ensuring a just and sustainable transition to net zero. The report serves as a call to action for governments, businesses, and societies to collaborate and build resilience to tackle the world's greatest challenges.