世界经济论坛：2021全球风险报告（英文版）_97页_9mb

The Global Risks Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2021 is the 16th edition of the World Economic Forum's annual report on global risks. It highlights the growing societal, economic, and environmental fractures that have emerged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. The report emphasizes the need for global collaboration and strategic foresight to address these challenges and build a more resilient and inclusive future.

Main Points

• Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS): Over 650 members of the World Economic Forum's leadership communities participated in the survey, providing insights into the most likely and impactful global risks over the next decade.
• Key Risks Identified:
  • Likelihood: Extreme weather, climate action failure, human environmental damage, infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, digital power concentration, digital inequality, interstate relations fracture, cybersecurity failure, livelihood crises.
  • Impact: Infectious diseases, climate action failure, weapons of mass destruction, biodiversity loss, natural resource crises, human environmental damage, livelihood crises, extreme weather, debt crises, IT infrastructure breakdown.
• Short-term Critical Threats (Next 2 Years): Digital inequality, youth disillusionment, and social cohesion erosion.
• Medium-term (3-5 Years): Economic risks like asset bubbles, price instability, commodity shocks, and debt crises; geopolitical risks such as interstate relations fracture and conflict.
• Long-term (5-10 Years): Environmental risks including biodiversity loss, natural resource crises, and climate action failure; as well as the collapse of states and multilateral institutions.

Key Findings

• Economic Impact of the Pandemic: The global economy faced its deepest crisis in peacetime, with a 4.4% contraction in 2020. Only 28 economies were expected to grow, with China being the sole G-20 country among them.
• Human Cost: Nearly 100 million people worldwide had contracted the virus, and over 2 million had died by the time of the report's publication. The pandemic has also caused long-term health effects, including physical and psychological impacts, and has strained healthcare systems globally.
• Societal Disparities: The pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities, particularly in healthcare, education, and technology access. Marginalized groups, including youth, unskilled workers, and women, have been disproportionately affected.
• Digital Divide: The acceleration of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has widened the digital divide, creating new barriers to social mobility and access to opportunities.
• Youth Disillusionment: The generation entering the workforce has faced multiple crises, including economic downturns, environmental degradation, and social disruptions, leading to a loss of faith in institutions and a sense of lost opportunity.
• Climate Change: Despite a temporary drop in emissions during lockdowns, climate change remains a critical long-term risk. "Climate action failure" is identified as the most impactful and second most likely long-term risk.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Governance and Resilience: The report calls for improved governance structures to manage global risks. It suggests four key areas for enhancing resilience: developing holistic risk frameworks, investing in risk champions, improving risk communication, and exploring new public-private partnerships.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Middle powers, which play a crucial role in global cooperation, are at risk of being unable to facilitate recovery due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Industrial Transformation: The post-pandemic economy is expected to see a polarized industrial landscape, with major companies gaining more while smaller ones struggle. This could lead to increased inequality and reduced market dynamism.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2021 underscores the urgent need for global collaboration and strategic foresight in the face of widening inequalities, societal fragmentation, and environmental threats. It highlights the importance of addressing these issues to ensure a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable future for all.