期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1991_56页_6mb

报告摘要

NBER Reporter - Spring 1991 Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter Spring 1991 issue provides a retrospective on the International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM), highlighting its origin, organization, and key themes in international and comparative macroeconomics. The seminar, established in 1978, was one of the earliest collaborative efforts between the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and European institutions. It aimed to address the limitations of American macroeconomic models by incorporating European perspectives and fostering a more balanced transatlantic dialogue.

The ISOM has been instrumental in promoting frontier research in international and comparative macroeconomics, focusing on exchange rates, labor markets, debt, and economic integration. The issue includes a detailed review of the seminar’s structure, its role in academic collaboration, and the main themes that have emerged over more than a decade of conferences.

Main Themes of ISOM

1. Exchange Rates and International Adjustment

Early Focus: The seminar initially explored the implications of flexible exchange rate systems on monetary policy, inflation, and disinflation.
Shift in Emphasis: By the mid-1980s, attention turned to international policy coordination, especially in the context of U.S. fiscal deficits and the appreciation of the dollar.
European Monetary System (EMS): The EMS became a central topic, with research focusing on central bank credibility and the benefits of monetary discipline.
Target Zones and Managed Floating: The volatility of the dollar spurred interest in target zones and managed floating as alternative exchange rate regimes.
Key Papers: Notable contributions include Jacob A. Frenkel’s paper on purchasing power parities, and John Williamson and Marcus M. Miller’s analysis of alternative international monetary regimes.

2. Labor Markets and Macroeconomic Adjustment

Wage Rigidity: Early ISOM research highlighted the difference between U.S. "nominal wage rigidity" and European "real wage rigidity" as a key factor in the divergence of unemployment rates.
Productivity Growth: The U.S. experienced slower productivity growth compared to Europe, which was linked to factors such as fiscal deficits and innovation.
Housing and Job Security: Papers examined how housing markets and job security legislation affected labor mobility and economic growth in Europe and Japan.

3. Debt and Deficits

Fiscal Deficits: The seminar addressed the causes and effects of fiscal deficits, particularly in the U.S., and their long-term implications for economic activity and employment.
External Debt: Research explored the role of external debt in the Great Depression and its impact on economic stability.
Policy Implications: Papers questioned the use of budget deficits for stabilization and highlighted the challenges of international cooperation in managing debt and fiscal policy.

4. Real Trade and Economic Integration

European Integration: As the 1992 European integration approached, the seminar shifted focus to trade liberalization and economic integration.
Imperfect Competition: Research concentrated on the effects of imperfect competition and barriers to factor market mobility.
Trade Imbalances: The seminar also examined the difficulty of interpreting trade imbalances, considering the interplay between exchange rates, supply shifts, and income elasticities.

5. Comparative Studies

Empirical Research: ISOM has consistently promoted comparative empirical analysis across multiple countries.
Traditional Topics: Studies covered consumption, investment, money demand, factor demand, Okun’s Law, and price expectations.
Supply-Side Emphasis: Research also addressed productivity levels, sectoral and firm-level productivity growth, and profit rate measurement.

Organizational Structure and Impact

Transatlantic Balance: The ISOM is always held in Europe, with a two-thirds European and one-third American participant composition.
Dual Role of Discussants: Each paper has two discussants, one from each side of the Atlantic, ensuring balanced perspectives.
Program Committee: A stable and broad-based program committee has been instrumental in maintaining the "style" of the ISOM.
Publication: The European Economic Review (EER) became the official publication for ISOM proceedings, with Jean L. Waelbroeck playing a crucial role in this development.
Financial Support: The NBER and Maison des Sciences de l'Homme (MSH) shared organizational and financial responsibilities, with additional support from European and Japanese institutions.

Key Figures and Contributions

Robert J. Gordon: Co-organizer of ISOM and a central figure in the development of the seminar.
Barry J. Eichengreen: Presented a detailed analysis of the Gold Standard and the Great Depression, emphasizing the importance of credibility and cooperation in maintaining the gold standard.
Jean L. Waelbroeck: Played a key role in organizing and publishing ISOM proceedings.
William H. Branson: Involved in early discussions and emphasized equal transatlantic collaboration.
Jacob A. Frenkel and Francesco Giavazzi: Highlighted the role of central bank credibility and monetary discipline in the context of the European Monetary System.

Conclusion

The ISOM has been a vital platform for international macroeconomic research, fostering collaboration and comparative analysis between American and European economists. Its transatlantic focus, emphasis on real economics, and avoidance of doctrinal disputes have contributed to its success and influence. The seminar continues to explore critical issues in international monetary and real economics, and to encourage comparative research that addresses the divergent evolution of industrial economies.