期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-winter2002_47页_497kb

NBER Public Economics Program Summary - Winter 2001/2002

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Public Economics (PE) Program has been actively engaged in research and policy analysis on taxation, social security, and public expenditure programs. This report highlights the key findings and developments in these areas over the past three years, as well as new research initiatives in political economy and public policies toward crime.

Main Research Areas

1. Personal Income Taxes

• Impact on Household Behavior: Recent studies examine how changes in marginal tax rates influence labor supply, saving, charitable giving, and investment decisions.
• EITC and Saving Behavior: The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been a focus, with findings showing its significant effect on labor force participation and hours of work, especially for young households.
• Capital Gains and Investment: Research explores the relationship between capital gains taxation and investment behavior, including the effects on mutual fund investments and the market value of risky assets.
• Retirement Savings: The role of tax provisions like 401(k) and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in shaping retirement savings is analyzed, including the influence of tax incentives on employee participation and returns.
• Estate and Gift Taxes: New empirical studies have investigated the economic effects of estate and gift taxes, particularly on saving, charitable giving, and intergenerational transfers.

2. Corporate Income Taxes

• Multinational Firms: Research has increasingly focused on the behavior of multinational firms, including the impact of tax policies on investment, financing, and production decisions.
• Taxation of Multinationals: The report highlights how the treatment of foreign earnings, capital flows, and export activities influences corporate behavior.
• Corporate Tax Policy: Studies analyze the economic impact of investment incentives (e.g., depreciation allowances, tax credits) and the broader implications of tax-induced changes in capital costs on business investment.
• Taxation of Executive Compensation: Research has examined how corporate tax policies affect the structure and level of executive pay, and the broader implications for corporate financial behavior.

3. Social Security

• Retirement Programs: As the Baby Boomer generation ages, there has been increased attention on the design and effects of Social Security systems, both in the U.S. and internationally.
• Labor Supply and Social Security: Studies analyze how the current system and potential reforms affect labor supply, particularly for older households facing the Social Security earnings test.
• Risk Sharing and Investment: Research explores the risk-sharing mechanisms of the Social Security trust fund and how alternative investment strategies might influence policy outcomes.
• Individual Investment Accounts: There is ongoing analysis of the potential consequences of replacing or supplementing the current Social Security system with individual accounts, including distributional and risk-related effects.
• International Comparisons: The PE Program has also examined social security systems in Germany, Europe, South Africa, China, and Singapore and Australia.

Key Research Initiatives

1. Political Economy of Public Policy

• Policy Design and Outcomes: Researchers explore how political institutions and processes influence the design and effectiveness of public policies.
• Welfare Programs and Generational Transfers: Studies analyze the structure of welfare programs and how policies affect resource allocation across generations.
• Government Role in Financial Markets: Research investigates the role of government in financial markets and the impact of political decisions on economic outcomes.

2. Public Policies Toward Crime

• Crime and Public Expenditures: The PE Program has studied the impact of public expenditures on crime, including the effects of prison systems and police services.
• Criminal Organizations and Punishments: Research includes the economics of criminal organizations, the factors determining punishments for various crimes, and the impact of incarceration costs on government budgets.

Key Contributions

• Working Papers and Books: Over 400 Working Papers were published in the PE Program, along with four major books and three special issues of refereed journals.
• Tax Policy and the Economy: The PE Program has released three new volumes of Tax Policy and the Economy, providing critical insights into tax reform and policy implications.
• Research Meetings: The program has hosted over 20 research meetings, including the biennial Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar.

New Programs and Initiatives

• Environmental Economics: A new working group has been established to study environmental tax policies.
• Economics of Education: A dedicated program has been launched to examine the economic impact of education-related public policies.
• Child and Elderly Well-Being: The NBER Program on the Well-Being of Children, directed by Jonathan Gruber, has been a significant addition to the PE Program.

Conclusion

The NBER Public Economics Program has been instrumental in shaping the understanding of taxation, social security, and public expenditure through rigorous research and policy analysis. The work of program members continues to inform national and international debates on economic policy, particularly in the context of tax reform and retirement systems.

NBER Overview

• Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization dedicated to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• The PE Program is led by James M. Poterba, who is also the Mitsui Professor of Economics at MIT.
• The NBER website provides access to over 5000 Working Papers and 3500 time series from the Macroeconomic History Database.
• The Reporter is an informational publication, not reviewed by the NBER Board of Directors, and is freely reproducible with proper attribution.

Funding and Governance

• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain independence and flexibility.
• The Board of Directors includes prominent economists and officials from various institutions.
• Directors at Large and Directors by University Appointment represent a wide range of academic and policy institutions.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations include representatives from professional associations and think tanks.

Government Service

• Many PE Program members have served in government agencies and policy roles, including:
  • Lawrence H. Summers (former Secretary of the Treasury)
  • R. Glenn Hubbard (Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers)
  • Mark B. McClellan, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Kathleen McGarry, and Jeffrey Brown (senior staff economists at the CEA)

Research Summaries

• Integrating Multinational Firms into International Economics: James R. Markusen outlines a microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of multinational firms, emphasizing jointness, fragmentation, and skilled-labor intensity as key factors in firm behavior.
• Theoretical Frameworks: The work draws on the John Dunning framework, which identifies three advantages for firms to become multinational: ownership, location, and internalization.
• Empirical Predictions: The theory predicts how country size, factor endowments, and trade costs influence the type and direction of multinational activity, with implications for horizontal and vertical firms.

Final Notes

• The PE Program continues to be a vital source of policy-relevant research and economic analysis.
• The NBER Reporter serves as a key platform for disseminating findings and fostering academic and policy dialogue.
• The program remains flexible and responsive to current economic and policy challenges, including those related to taxation, social security, and public spending.