期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1991_44页_786kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1991

Core Content of the Document

The NBER Reporter Fall 1991 issue provides an overview of the research activities and developments within the NBER's Program in International Studies. It highlights key research areas, notable contributions, and upcoming changes in the program's structure.

Main Research Areas

1. Trade and Growth

• Focus: The relationship between trade and economic growth, including the role of technology transfer and product diversity.
• Key Contributions:
  • Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman argue that openness to trade can influence long-term growth through technology transfer and product availability.
  • Irving B. Kravis and Robert E. Lipsey contributed to comparative data analysis.
  • Stanley Fischer and James A. Brander found that openness, human capital, and market efficiency increase growth.
  • Richard E. Baldwin and James E. Rauch emphasized the importance of trade in productivity growth.
• Implications: The interaction of trade and growth is a central theme, with research showing that trade openness can have both positive and negative impacts on growth depending on context.

2. Strategic Behavior and Trade

• Focus: The role of strategic behavior in trade, including minilateralism, multinational corporations (MNCs), and the impact of trade policies.
• Key Contributions:
  • Robert E. Baldwin and J. David Richardson have analyzed trade policy in the context of strategic behavior.
  • Carsten Kowalczyk and Jonathan Eaton explored minilateral trade agreements and the role of sanctions.
  • S. Lael Brainard and Robert C. Feenstra studied trade policy and rent sharing.
  • Barbara J. Spencer and Marie C. Thursby focused on vertical integration and international patent races.
• Implications: Strategic behavior significantly influences trade outcomes, with implications for market discipline and policy design.

3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• Focus: The growth and determinants of FDI, particularly in the U.S., EC, and Japan.
• Key Contributions:
  • Michael R. Darby supervised the first annual report on U.S. FDI.
  • Rachel McCulloch continued her work on inward investment and multilateral negotiations.
  • Koichi Hamada analyzed FDI patterns across the Pacific and trade-offs between trade and FDI.
  • Albert Ando and Jeffrey A. Frankel studied international differences in the cost of capital.
  • Eliana A. Cardoso examined the investment slump in Latin America.
• Implications: FDI is a key driver of economic development, influenced by market conditions, political stability, and economic policies.

4. International Macroeconomics

• Focus: The behavior of exchange rates, real exchange rates, and the role of economic institutions in international integration.
• Key Contributions:
  • Paul R. Krugman studied exchange rate behavior in target zones and showed how credibility affects stability.
  • Kenneth Rogoff and Robert E. Cumby explored the relationship between government spending and real exchange rates.
  • Francesco Giavazzi and Alberto Giovannini examined endogenous productivity growth and its effect on real exchange rates.
  • Alessandra Casella and Barry J. Eichengreen analyzed the formation of economic institutions and fiscal unification in Europe.
• Implications: Macroeconomic policy coordination and institutional development are crucial for maintaining exchange rate stability and economic growth in an integrated global economy.

5. International Finance

• Focus: Exchange rate volatility, speculative behavior, and the role of information in financial markets.
• Key Contributions:
  • Robert J. Hodrick and Jeffrey A. Frankel questioned the efficiency of foreign exchange markets.
  • Dwight M. Jaffee and W. H. Branson modeled interest rate differentials and the impact of information on capital mobility.
  • Nancy P. Marion and Vittorio U. Grilli studied the effects of capital market integration on exchange rate volatility.
  • Richard M. Levich and Carol L. Osler analyzed speculative behavior and technical trading rules.
• Implications: Financial markets are not always efficient, and policy uncertainty can significantly affect market behavior and exchange rate stability.

Program Reorganization

• The NBER program in International Studies is reorganizing into two new programs:
  • International Trade and Investment (ITI)
  • International Finance and Macroeconomics (IFM)

Other Projects and Activities

• International Taxation: Jacob A. Frenkel and Assaf Razin continue their work on international taxation.
• International Seminars: The NBER sponsors a series of international seminars in collaboration with other organizations.
• NBER Project on International Taxation: This project is ongoing and involves collaboration with multiple institutions.
• NBER Working Papers: The issue highlights several recent working papers, including those on trade, FDI, and macroeconomic policy.

Key Researchers and Contributions

• Robert E. Lipsey contributed to comparative data and trade analysis.
• Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman emphasized the role of trade openness in growth.
• Stanley Fischer and James A. Brander studied growth convergence and the effects of trade liberalization.
• Richard E. Baldwin and J. David Richardson analyzed U.S. trade policy and the Uruguay Round.
• Koichi Hamada and Albert Ando examined FDI patterns and the cost of capital.
• Jacob A. Frenkel, Stephen J. Turnovsky, and Sebastian Edwards contributed to research on policy uncertainty and reform, particularly in Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

The NBER's Program in International Studies continues to be a hub for research on trade, investment, macroeconomics, and financial markets. The focus on competitiveness, policy reform, and international coordination remains strong, with a growing interest in Eastern Europe. The program's reorganization into two new areas reflects its evolving research agenda and the increasing complexity of global economic issues.