期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1991_56页_854kb

NBER Reporter Summary: Summer 1991

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1991 provides an overview of the research activities and findings of the NBER's Program on Economic Fluctuations. The report highlights the work of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is responsible for identifying peaks and troughs in the U.S. business cycle. It also details the research meetings and working groups that are central to the program's operations, as well as summaries of key research topics and findings from the Annual Research Conference.

Main Points

Business Cycle Dating Committee

• The committee determines the official dates of business cycle peaks and troughs.
• In 1990, the committee concluded that the U.S. economy likely reached a peak in July 1990, based on data showing significant contractions in key indicators such as employment, industrial production, and real personal income.
• The committee waits until the recovery is clearly evident before confirming a trough.
• Previous decisions, such as the 1973-1974 and 1980-1982 business cycles, were later reviewed and confirmed as correct.

Research Meetings and Working Groups

• The program holds research meetings in February, July, and October.
• These meetings focus on intermediate-stage research, often leading to the publication of NBER Working Papers.
• Research groups are formed around specific topics and typically last 2-3 years.
• Topics include:
  • Macroeconomic complementarities (Cooper's group)
  • Nonconvexities in macroeconomics (Caballero and Caplin's group)
  • Inventories and GNP components (Maccini and Ramey's group)
  • Labor market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations (Davis's group)
  • Common elements of growth and fluctuations (Diebold and Durlauf's group)

Key Research Findings

• Davis and Haltiwanger found that employment changes during recessions are driven by a minority of firms, while many continue to expand.
• Ausubel challenged the assumption that competition reduces profits in the credit card industry, showing that banks can sell credit card accounts at a premium.
• Baxter and King demonstrated that introducing complementarities into business cycle models can improve their ability to explain real economic behavior.
• Barsky and Warner studied seasonal pricing patterns and found that prices of standardized goods like electronics do not fluctuate much during the holiday season, even with high demand.
• Benhabib, Rogerson, and Wright analyzed labor supply, suggesting that market work is more volatile when the alternative is home production rather than leisure.
• Christiano and Eichenbaum and King explored the role of monetary policy in business cycles, addressing a gap in previous research.

Research Summaries

Economic Reform in Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R.

• Part of the NBER's broader project on "The Economics of National Security".
• Research focuses on the macroeconomics of stabilization and structural elements of economic reform.
• Key challenges include:
  • Transitioning from central planning to market economies.
  • Price reform to align with world prices.
  • Privatization of industries and firms.
  • Macroeconomic stabilization through fixed exchange rates, social safety nets, and wage controls.
• Price reform can be implemented quickly using convertibility and tariff reduction, though some goods (like energy) may require a gradual approach to avoid economic shocks.
• Privatization strategies vary: voucher schemes in Poland and Czechoslovakia, while Hungary uses direct sales.
• Banks are in poor condition, requiring restructuring, and the development of a viable banking system is crucial for the reform process.

Macroeconomics in Disarray

• N. Gregory Mankiw discusses the current state of macroeconomic theory.
• Despite the recent recession, there is no consensus among economists on the causes of business cycle fluctuations or the appropriate policy responses.
• IS-LM model and Phillips curve were once widely accepted, but recent debates have led to divergence in views.
• The Annual Research Conference highlights progress and challenges in macroeconomic research, particularly in areas like monetary policy, labor markets, and seasonal vs. cyclical movements.

Other Highlights

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• The Business Cycle Dating Committee consists of seven members and plays a critical role in defining the chronology of U.S. business cycles.
• The Reporter is an informative publication not reviewed by the Board of Directors and not copyrighted.
• Research groups bring together economists from various backgrounds to explore specific macroeconomic topics, often using micro-level data and theoretical models.

Key Takeaways

• The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee uses a combination of statistical indicators and economic theory to identify peaks and troughs.
• Research groups are central to the NBER's approach, enabling in-depth exploration of macroeconomic phenomena.
• Economic reform in Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. is a complex process involving price liberalization, market creation, and ownership transformation.
• Monetary policy remains a critical but underexplored area in macroeconomic research.
• The Annual Research Conference serves as a platform for presenting and discussing new research findings in macroeconomics.