20140820-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 19 August 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary outlines the key developments in the oil and gas sector across various regions as of 19 August 2014. It includes price movements, company-specific news, and analyst ratings for major players in the industry.
Price Movements
- Crude Oil (Brent): Closed at USD101.56, with a 1-day change of -0.04 USD and a 1-month change of -5.5%.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Closed at USD94.48, with a 1-day change of -1.93 USD and a 1-month change of -7.3%.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at USD100.07, with a 1-day change of -0.46 USD and a 1-month change of -4.6%.
- China Daqing Spot: Closed at USD98.14, with a 1-day change of -0.61 USD and a 1-month change of -7.7%.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Closed at USD3.88, with a 1-day change of +0.09 USD and a 1-month change of -2.0%.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at USD12.00, with a 1-day change of 0.00 USD and a 1-month change of +2.6%.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Closed at USD108.66, with a 1-day change of +0.54 USD and a 1-month change of -9.8%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Closed at USD116.53, with a 1-day change of +0.24 USD and a 1-month change of -2.5%.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Closed at USD589.08, with a 1-day change of -0.26 USD and a 1-month change of -3.2%.
- Gold: Closed at USD1,295.73, with a 1-day change of -2.67 USD and a 1-month change of -1.2%.
- USD-CNY: Closed at 6.14, with a 1-day change of 0.00 and a 1-month change of -1.1%.
- DJI: Closed at 16,919.59, with a 1-day change of +80.85 and a 1-month change of -1.1%.
- S&P 500: Closed at 1,981.60, with a 1-day change of +9.86 and a 1-month change of +0.2%.
News Highlights
China
- Gasoline and Diesel Prices: Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel dropped by CNY185-190/tonne due to fuel price adjustment.
- Sino O&G: Sanjiao CBM project approved, with CNPC also having stakes.
- PetroChina Xinjiang: Increased output target to 2.7bcm for 2014, serving as the main supply hub for the West-East gas pipeline.
Indonesia
- Bumi Armada JV: Secured a MYR3.76b (USD1.3b) 10-year firm contract with 5 annual extension options for FPSO Madura.
Malaysia
- Nam Cheong: Secured four-vessel orders worth USD90m, with an order book of 29 vessels totaling USD634m.
- Oil Search: Reported 34% higher 1H14 profits due to PNG LNG startup, with output up 68% to 5.4mmboe.
Australia
- Darwin Hub: Officially opened a comprehensive marine services hub.
Other Regions
- Apache: Made a significant crude find in Western Australia, potentially the largest in 30 years.
- Tethys Oil: Profits rose by 8% in 1H14 due to production growth and lower costs.
- Cairn Energy: Narrowed net loss to USD62m from USD219m in 1H13, with increased capex for 2015-2017.
Analyst Ratings and Target Prices
BUY Ratings
- Bumi Armada: Target Price MYR4.55, with a 10-year firm contract and expected net profit contribution from 2018.
- Perdana Petroleum: Target Price MYR2.55, with core earnings representing 46-48% of full-year forecasts.
- NewOcean Energy: Target Price HKD8.88, with an auto LNG strategy and potential to become a national leader.
- Petron Corp: Target Price USD16.80, with strong growth potential.
- Phoenix Petroleum Philippines: Target Price USD7.05, with strong growth potential.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Target Price USD87.00, with strong growth potential.
- BPCL: Target Price USD674.05, with strong growth potential.
HOLD Ratings
- Swiber Holdings: Target Price SGD0.57, with weak 2Q14 performance and low orderbook.
- Gas Malaysia: Target Price USD3.80, with a Hold rating.
- Petronas Gas: Target Price USD23.50, with a Hold rating.
- IRPC PCL: Target Price USD3.74, with a Hold rating.
SELL Rating
- Thai Oil PCL: Target Price USD65.00, with a Sell rating.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (19-Aug) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.86 | 11.50 | 241.0 | 97.1 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.68 | 6.85 | 105.7 | 72.9 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 15.40 | 14.34 | 88.7 | 98.9 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 323.40 | 443.00 | 10.0 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 23.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 11.78 | 16.80 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 65.75 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 25.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 3.8 |
Asia Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (19-Aug) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 3.34 | 4.55 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 23.4 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 1.59 | 1.90 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 18.9 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 34.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | Buy | 1.46 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 13.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Key Information
- Market Trends: Prices for crude oil and natural gas showed mixed performance, with WTI down 2.0% and Henry Hub up 2.2%.
- Company Performance: Several companies reported improved profits or strategic developments, including Tethys Oil, Cairn Energy, and Oil Search.
- Analyst Insights: Analysts provided ratings and target prices, emphasizing growth potential and market positioning.
- Valuation Metrics: The summary includes P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and P/B ratios for companies across different regions, offering a comprehensive view of their financial standing.
This document provides a detailed snapshot of the regional oil and gas market, highlighting both price movements and key company news, along with analyst ratings and valuation insights.
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