20151110-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_786kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market in late November 2015, including price movements, market analysis, and investment ratings for various companies. It highlights the performance of crude oil and other energy products, along with insights from analysts and reports from different regions.
Key Market Trends
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Oil Prices:
- Brent Crude: Unchanged at USD47.42/b.
- WTI: Fell by 0.9% to USD43.87/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down 1.2% to USD44.37/barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Down 1.4% to USD40.75/barrel.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down 1.4% to USD7.27/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Up 0.9% to USD56.57/barrel.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 0.3% to USD58.89/gallon.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 0.7% to USD240.25/mt.
- Gold: Up 0.2% to USD1,092.31/Oz.
- USD-CNY: Up 0.1% to 6.36.
- DJI: Down 1.0% to 17,730.48.
- S&P 500: Down 1.0% to 2,078.58.
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Market Analysis:
- Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day due to fresh inventory builds and lower Wall Street share prices.
- The oil market is expected to rebalance by 2016 or 2017 as global demand grows.
- US shale oil production is projected to decline by 118,000 b/d in December, the largest monthly drop since May.
- China's crude imports dropped by 5.72% month-on-month in October due to refinery maintenance and increased domestic production.
Investment Reports
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PTT Global Chemical:
- Weak 3Q15 results as expected.
- Maintain HOLD rating with a target price of USD62/share.
- The stock appears cheap at 1.0x PB, but IRPC is preferred due to stronger EPS growth.
-
Bumi Armada:
- Unconfirmed news of MISC potentially injecting offshore assets into Bumi Armada.
- Positive outlook on potential strategic partnership.
- Reiterate BUY with an unchanged target price of MYR1.20.
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China Oil & Gas:
- Payback time: GRM to rebound.
- Reiterate Overweight rating on the China Oil & Gas sector.
- CNOOC and Sinopec remain BUYs.
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Sinopec:
- Reported a 47.8% fall in net profit for the first 9 months of 2015.
- Expected to face challenges in 4Q15.
- Maintain BUY rating with a target price of MYR1.20.
- Dividend is expected to be in line with previous years, no less than 30% of net profit.
Company Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (9-Nov) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.96 | 4.80 | 251.4 | 81.4 | 26.2 | 45.6 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.45 | 6.00 | 98.3 | 68.7 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.76 | 11.34 | 50.5 | 93.2 | 16.3 | 19.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.5 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.19 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 249.3 | NR | 32.1 | 16.7 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 961.3 | NR | 46.9 | 49.6 | 12.9 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 144.9 | 198.00 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 902.9 | NR | 9.8 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 15.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 795.2 | NR | 4.1 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 8.31 | 11.25 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 19.0 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.69 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 67,600 | NR | 6.6 | 18.7 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 116,000 | NR | 9.3 | 36.6 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 51,800 | NR | 4.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 78.30 | NR | 22.7 | 7.2 | 18.8 | 20.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Bangchak Petroleum | BCP TB | Buy | 35.50 | 41.00 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 55.00 | 87.00 | 6.9 | 19.0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 286.0 | 395.00 | 22.8 | 62.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 54.8 | 65.00 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.3 | 12.6 | -20.5 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Key Information
- The oil market is expected to balance by 2016 due to rising global demand.
- US shale production is projected to decline in December.
- China's crude import decline in October was due to refinery maintenance.
- Sinopec's results are expected to be challenging in 4Q15, but the company is reiterating a BUY rating.
- Investment ratings for companies in the region are varied, with some companies recommended as BUY and others as HOLD or Sell.
- Valuation metrics are provided for each company, including PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and P/BV.
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