20150721-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_374kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 21 Jul 2015
Core Information
- Date: 21 July 2015
- Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
- Focus: Oil and gas market updates, valuations, and analyst ratings across Asia, including Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as international players such as Chevron, Shell, and others.
Market Trends
-
Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent: Down 0.8% to USD56.65/b, with a 1D change of -0.45, 1W change of -2.6%, and 1M change of -11.2%.
- WTI: Down 1.5% to USD50.15/b, with a 1D change of -0.74, 1W change of -3.9%, and 1M change of -16.4%.
- Oman Crude: Exports in June outpaced production due to increased demand from China, which accounted for 90% of Oman's crude exports, up 12% from May.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: At USD55.12/b, with a 1M change of -10.4%.
- China Daqing Spot: At USD51.93/b, with a 1M change of -12.7%.
-
Natural Gas and Other Products:
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Down 1.6% to USD2.82/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: At USD7.83/MMBtu, with a 1M change of 8.7%.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down 1.2% to USD72.23/b.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down 1.9% to USD67.15/b.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 3.0% to USD306.51/mt.
- Gold: Down 3.3% to USD1,096.50/Oz.
- USD-CNY: Stable at 6.21.
- DJI: Up 0.1% to 18,100.41.
- S&P 500: Up 0.1% to 2,128.28.
Key News Headlines
-
WTI slips below $50:
- Oil futures fell, with WTI dropping below $50/b.
- US refined-products futures also showed volatility.
- Saudi Arabia's diesel exports contributed to bearish sentiment.
-
Chevron seeks Michigan buyer:
- Chevron is marketing a large asset package in Michigan, including Collingwood shale rights.
- The asset spans 102,000 gross acres across four counties.
-
Statoil to leave TAP gas pipeline project:
- Statoil is selling its 20% stake in the Trans Adriatic Gas Pipeline (TAP).
- SOCAR mentioned that several companies have shown interest in the stake.
-
Oman crude exports surge:
- Oman exported 912,015 b/d in June, up 11.28% from May.
- China's demand for Oman crude increased significantly, accounting for 90% of exports.
-
Shell's BG deal:
- Shell expects billions in savings from its proposed £55bn acquisition of BG Group.
- The deal aims to reduce costs in deepwater oil and gas trading.
- The company is working to regain investor confidence.
Analyst Ratings and Valuations
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (20-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 7.97 | 8.30 | 379.8 | 141.6 | 23.1 | 14.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.12 | 7.70 | 130.0 | 124.6 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.06 | 16.80 | 57.9 | 110.2 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 291.9 | NR | 39.2 | 19.6 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,024.8 | NR | 52.1 | 62.4 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 167.5 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 963.4 | NR | 10.9 | 20.6 | 22.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 878.2 | NR | 4.7 | 17.5 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| INTEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,347 | NR | 15.8 | 62.0 | 23.5 | 27.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 3,795 | NR | 1.7 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 15.0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 524 | NR | 10.5 | 51.1 | N/A | 7.5 | -251.0 | 8.2 | -15.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,098 | NR | 3.3 | 17.1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Ten General | 5012 JT | NR | 1,202 | NR | 5.5 | 14.6 | 22.3 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,413 | NR | 3.1 | 14.8 | N/A | 7.3 | -33.9 | 7.8 | -15.9 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 193 | NR | 1.3 | 7.1 | N/A | 5.6 | -162.4 | 8.3 | -36.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.46 | 24.00 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 23.5 | 23.2 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | Hold | 2.54 | 2.65 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Petronas Chemicals | PTG MK | Hold | 21.46 | 24.00 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 23.5 | 23.2 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| NewOcean Energy | NEXE NY | BUY | 3.30 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 12.9 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 60,000 | 92,000 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 26.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 |
| Asian Oil & Gas Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18.7 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Asian Refiners Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14.0 | 12.8 | -21.3 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM US | NR | 81.76 | NR | 341.8 | 901.0 | 18.4 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Chevron | CVX US | NR | 92.94 | NR | 174.8 | 699.9 | 21.7 | 15.6 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 1,819 | NR | 180.8 | 18,025 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 6.6 |
| BP plc | BP/LN | NR | 416.60 | NR | 118.6 | 21,726 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 5.5 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 141.78 | NR | 59.0 | 71.8 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
| ROSE oil | ROSN LI | NR | 3.98 | NR | 42.2 | 21.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | N/A | N/A | 12.2 | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| Lukoil | LKOH RX | NR | 2,428 | NR | 36.3 | 40.2 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 6.3 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (20-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 10.38 | NR | 11.5 | 30.6 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.50 | NR | 0.4 | 2.8 | N/A | 46.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 1.07 | NR | 0.2 | 1.5 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 2.04 | NR | 0.4 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.77 | NR | 0.3 | 1.8 | 102.8 | 21.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 0.93 | NR | 0.1 | 0.4 | N/A | 71.5 | 35.8 | 19.0 | -1.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 0.81 | NR | 0.1 | 0.8 | 13.0 | 8.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.5 |
| Shengli Pipe | 1080 HK | NR | 0.32 | NR | 0.1 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chu Kong Pipe | 1938 HK | NR | 1.85 | NR | 0.2 | 0.3 | N/A | 18.5 | 35.8 | 19.0 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.94 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.08 | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.62 | 1.90 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 31.9 | 29.9 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.14 | 1.32 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.12 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 22.6 | 20.0 | 15.1 | 15.9 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| UMWOG MK | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.53 | 2.55 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| UZMA | UZMA MK | NR | 2.50 | NR | 0.2 | 0.3 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 19.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| WahSeong | WSC MK | Hold | 1.33 | 1.24 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Cosco Corp | COS SP | Sell | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 31.1 | 27.2 | 16.2 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Key Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact (852) 22680648, Email: howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact (91) 226623 2632, Email: jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact (62) 21 2557 1137, Email: pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact (603) 22978688, Email: tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact (63) 28498840, Email: micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact (65) 6231 5842, Email: yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, Email: sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 844555888 × 8082, Email: chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 444555888 × 8087, Email: binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Key Points
- Oil Prices: WTI and Brent prices fell significantly, while LNG prices showed a positive trend.
- Market Activity: Increased exports from Oman due to China's demand, and Chevron's asset sale in Michigan.
- Strategic Moves: Statoil is selling its stake in the TAP project, and Shell is optimistic about savings from its BG Group acquisition.
- Analyst Ratings: Maybank KE provides ratings for various Asian oil and gas companies, highlighting Buy, Hold, and Sell positions.
- Valuation Metrics: Multiple financial metrics are provided, including PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and P/BV.
- Market Outlook: The report suggests that while some companies are performing well, others face challenges and bearish sentiment.
Conclusion
The document provides a comprehensive overview of the oil and gas market trends and valuations in Asia and beyond. It highlights the impact of supply and demand dynamics, strategic corporate moves, and financial performance metrics. Analysts suggest maintaining certain positions while being cautious with others due to market uncertainties and sector-specific challenges.
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