20241031-开源证券-石头科技-688169.SH-公司信息更新报告_收入错期_费用前置下业绩阶段性承压_看好2024Q4内外销实现高增_4页_904kb

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1. Investment Recommendation

• Stock: Xiaomi (688169SH)
• Investment Grade: Buy (maintained)
• Date: October 30, 2024
• Current Price: RMB 264.79
• Annual High/Low: RMB 46,999 / 19,300
• Market Cap: CNY 48,913 billion
• Circulating Market Cap: CNY 48,913 billion
• Total Share: 1.85 billion shares
• Floating Share: 1.85 billion shares
• 3-Month Turnover Rate: 51.3%

2. Ratings Curve

• Certified by S0790123070024 and other certificate numbers.

3. Rationale Summary

The analysis maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's strong market position and expected growth in key markets, despite a temporary dip in profitability due to revenue timing and increased expenses.

4. Key Performance Indicators

• 2024Q1-Q3: Revenue RMB 70.1 billion (+232% YoY), Net Profit RMB 14.7 billion (+82% YoY). However, 2024Q3 shows a decline in net profit due to higher expenses, suggesting a temporary squeeze in margins and a boost in the 2024Q4 outlook due to favorable industry trends.

5. Regional Analysis

• Domestic Sales: Expected to grow by ~30%, with continued market leadership in tier-1 online channels. High-value product segments dominate despite competition.
• North America: Expected to grow by ~50%, with strong performance in online channels.
• Europe: Experiencing a slight downturn due to channel restructuring and delayed accounting recognition, but online channels show positive momentum.
• Asia-Pacific: Expected growth of ~20%, with key markets like Japan and Australia showing strong performance.

6. Profitability Factors

• Due to wider product price ranges and accounting adjustments, gross margin saw a slight drop.
• Increased sales expenses and early promotional spending contributed to higher operating costs.
• Expected high growth in 2024Q4 driven by industry stimulus measures.

7. Valuation

• PE Ratios (2024E-2026E): 188x, 165x, 134x.
• Industry-outperforming growth trajectory.

8. Risk Factors

• Unscheduled performance of new products.
• Raw material price fluctuations.
• Potential demand slowdown due to high inflation in key overseas markets.

9. Financial Projections (Illustrative)

• Anticipated YoY Growth:
  • Sales: 305% (2023A), 283% (2024E), 271% (2025E), 263% (2026E)
  • Key Metrics: valuation metrics like P/E and ROE continue to decline.
• Performance Highlights: sustained high growth across regions, contribution of new models to market share.

10. Disclaimer & Legal

Summary supplements, disclaimer of legal liability, and analyst risks are included.

Key Takeaways Summary

Overall, the report remains bullish on Xiaomi's long-term prospects due to its strong presence in key markets, recovery momentum anticipated for Q4 2024, and ability to capture market share despite temporary profitability challenges.