20230723-东证期货-国债期货周度报告_地产政策较为温和_债市暂窄幅震荡_18页_6mb

报告摘要

This report discusses the performance and outlook for Chinese government bond futures as of July 23, 2023.

Market Review: The weekly period (July 17-23) saw bond futures oscillate and advance, driven by factors like MLF oversubscription, weaker-than-expected economic data, and policy developments. Key events included economic data releases and the implementation of city renovation policies.
Next Week's View: Expect narrow x-width震荡 with slight upward trends. Real estate policies remain moderate, limiting strong support. Cross-month funding market changes and cautious post-policy sentiment are key factors to watch.
Market Dynamics: Current investors show interest in LH bonds, with bond yields generally falling. However, basis levels are low, creating potential scenarios for basis trading.
Risk Factors: High risk due to potential policy surprises and strong underlying fundamentals. Dem取指出confidence in money market has moderately improved.
Recommendations: Maintain a cautious '多看少动' strategy. Consider basis-related options but avoid potential pitfalls like curve steepening risks.

The report concludes with investment advice tailored to the political calendar and tailored risk alerts.

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