20170426-三星证券-Samsung_Model_Portfolio_38页_1mb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary

Core Content

The Samsung Model Portfolio is a strategic investment model designed to outperform the Kospi index by leveraging sector allocation and stock selection. The report outlines the performance of the portfolio compared to the Kospi in April 2017 and provides insights into the May outlook, key portfolio changes, and detailed sector weightings.

Performance Review (April 2017)

• Samsung Model Portfolio gained 1.48% from March 29 to April 25.
• The Kospi gained 1.56% over the same period.
• The Relative performance of the portfolio was -0.08%, indicating it underperformed the Kospi by 8 basis points.

Performance over different time frames:

• 1-month: +1.48% for Samsung, +1.56% for Kospi
• 3-month: +9.49% for Samsung, +8.43% for Kospi
• 6-month: +7.65% for Samsung, +7.48% for Kospi
• 12-month: +13.28% for Samsung, +10.06% for Kospi

May Outlook

• Korean markets face political risk due to the upcoming presidential election, with high expectations for policy changes.
• The report anticipates that global risk appetite will remain low, with markets possibly undergoing corrections or taking breathers.
• Despite uncertainties, the US reflation policy is expected to remain intact.
• The Kospi target range for May is set at 2,150-2,270.
• Sectors that were sidelined due to policy uncertainties are expected to rebound or become targets of rotation after the election.

Portfolio Changes

Sector Exposure Adjustments

• Raising exposure to:
  • Consumer discretionary (from 15% to 16%)
  • Financials (from 12% to 13%)
  • IT (from 31% to 32%)
• Cutting exposure to:
  • Materials (from 11% to 10%)
  • Utilities (from 4% to 2%)

Sector Weightings (May 2017)

• Overweight sectors: Consumer discretionary, Energy, Materials, IT
• Underweight sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, Telecom services

Companies Added

• Lotte Chemical
• Jeju Air
• Hyundai E&C
• Kogas
• Hankook Tire
• Afreeca TV
• Paradise
• Lotte Chilsung
• TES
• KT

Companies Removed

• LG Chemical
• Kepco
• LG Corporation
• Loen Entertainment
• CJ CheilJedang
• KCC
• Hyundai Glovis
• Mando
• LG Uplus

Exposure Adjustments

• Increased exposure to:
  • Cosmax
  • Hana Financial Group
• Decreased exposure to:
  • NCSoft

Key Portfolio Changes Table

Portfolio Weightings by Sector

Key Observations

• The portfolio maintains a market-neutral sector allocation but focuses on selective stock-picking.
• The beta of the portfolio is raised from 1.08 in April to 1.12 in May.
• The Samsung Model Portfolio is expected to benefit from economic pump-priming and rotation after the May 9 election.
• Sectors sensitive to domestic demand (e.g., retail, consumer goods, construction, and financials) are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the new government's policies.
• The US budget is expected to face significant revisions, which may affect global risk appetite.
• The Trump administration's reflation policy is expected to remain intact, but the infrastructure investment may face challenges.

Conclusion

The Samsung Model Portfolio aims to outperform the Kospi by strategically adjusting sector exposure and focusing on selective stock-picking. The portfolio is overweight in consumer discretionary, energy, materials, and IT sectors, while underweight in consumer staples, utilities, and telecom services. The report anticipates that political uncertainties will ease after the May 9 election, leading to potential sector rotation and rebound in previously sidelined sectors. The beta is increased to reflect a more aggressive stance, and the portfolio is expected to benefit from reflationary policies and economic stimulus.