20161201-三星证券-Samsung_Model_Portfolio__Fundamentals_to_prove_key_17页_887kb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary

Core Content

The Samsung Model Portfolio is a strategic investment portfolio managed by Samsung Securities, focusing on sectoral allocations and stock selections based on fundamental analysis and market conditions. The portfolio is reviewed and updated monthly, with adjustments made to reflect changing market dynamics and company performance.

Main Points

• Performance Review (November 2016):
  The Samsung Model Portfolio declined by 2.74% in November, underperforming the Kospi by 1.51 percentage points (bps). This was attributed to global market polarization, with emerging markets falling and US markets rising due to post-election optimism and risk appetite.

• December Outlook:
  The portfolio anticipates a rate hike by the US Fed during the December FOMC meeting. The Fed's cautious monetary policy stance is expected to continue despite inflationary pressures.
  Korean corporate earnings were strong in Q3, showing resilience despite the Galaxy Note 7 fiasco. The portfolio expects this performance to continue into the end of the year.
  Volatility is expected in December due to both domestic and international uncertainties, but the Kospi's book value is viewed with increased confidence.
  The target range for the index is set at 1,950-2,050 for December.
  The portfolio recommends accumulating undervalued large caps and value stocks during market weakness.

• Portfolio Strategy:
  The portfolio maintains its sector weightings but makes selective changes in stock composition.
  The IT sector exposure is increased by 1% to 30%, while industrial goods exposure is reduced by 1% to 13%.
  The portfolio is OVERWEIGHT on consumer staples, financials, materials, utilities, and energy, and UNDERWEIGHT on industrial goods, consumer discretionary, and healthcare.

• Stock Additions and Removals:
  Added: Lotte Chemical, SK Hynix, Posco, Doosan Bobcat, S1, Loen Entertainment, Lotte Himart, and CJ CheilJedang.
  Removed: Hyundai Development Co, Hyundai Glovis, Posco Chemtech, Kolon Industries, CJ E&M, and KT&G.

Key Portfolio Changes

• Sectoral Adjustments:

  • IT sector: Increased by 1% to 30%
  • Industrial goods sector: Decreased by 1% to 13%
  • Consumer discretionary: No change
  • Consumer staples: No change
  • Energy: No change
  • Financials: No change
  • Healthcare: No change
  • Other sectors: No change

• Stock-Level Adjustments:

  • Increased exposure: Hyundai Motor, Samsung Fire & Marine, and KB Financial Group
  • Reduced exposure: KCC, Korea Zinc, Hyundai Mobis, Hyundai Department Store, and Korea Investment Holdings
  • Added stocks: Lotte Chemical, SK Hynix, Posco, Doosan Bobcat, S1, Loen Entertainment, Lotte Himart, and CJ CheilJedang
  • Removed stocks: Hyundai Development Co, Hyundai Glovis, Posco Chemtech, Kolon Industries, CJ E&M, and KT&G

Key Information

• Portfolio Beta: Remains at 1.04 for December, consistent with November.

• Active Risk: The portfolio's active risk is calculated as the difference between the model portfolio weighting and the Kospi weighting.

• Performance Metrics:

  • Lotte Chemical: Outperformed the Kospi by 10.4% (1m), 22.6% (3m), and 34.3% (12m)
  • SK Hynix: Outperformed the Kospi by 2.4% (1m), 21.0% (3m), and 36.6% (12m)
  • Posco: Outperformed the Kospi by 12.1% (1m), 14.3% (3m), and 51.1% (12m)
  • Hyundai Motor: Outperformed the Kospi by -1.9% (1m), 3.1% (3m), and -8.7% (12m)
  • Samsung Fire & Marine: Outperformed the Kospi by 4.9% (1m), 17.3% (3m), and -1.8% (12m)
  • KB Financial Group: Outperformed the Kospi by 2.1% (1m), 15.7% (3m), and 20.0% (12m)

• Market Outlook:
  Despite volatility, the portfolio recommends increased equity exposure during corrections, with a focus on undervalued large caps and value stocks.
  Smaller firms and growth plays are expected to suffer due to yield curve steepening and normalizing US rates.

Summary

The Samsung Model Portfolio for December 2016 reflects a strategic shift towards the IT sector, with an increase in exposure and the addition of companies such as SK Hynix and Lotte Chemical. The portfolio remains cautious about industrial goods and consumer discretionary, with a focus on value stocks and large caps. The portfolio is expected to perform in line with the Kospi, with a target range of 1,950-2,050. The portfolio's beta remains unchanged, and the overall strategy is to accumulate undervalued stocks amid market volatility.