20160502-三星证券-Samsung_Model_Portfolio_Relief_rally_showing_limitations_16页_1mb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary

Core Content

The Samsung Model Portfolio is a strategic investment portfolio designed to reflect the current market conditions and investment outlook. As of May 2016, the portfolio underperformed the Kospi index in April, losing 0.50% compared to a 0.09% gain for the Kospi. The relative performance of the portfolio was -0.41% over one month, -1.42% over three months, and -3.57% over six months.

The portfolio is currently structured to focus on dividend, value, and turnaround plays, as the market is expected to remain defensive due to low inflationary pressure and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment. The analysis highlights that while some sectors have shown signs of recovery, the overall market is not expected to experience a strong rebound.

Main Viewpoints

• Market Recovery: The global markets have shown a recovery since mid-February, led by oil price rebounds and policy efforts in major economies.
• Economic Indicators: Manufacturing indices in the US, China, and the eurozone have improved, but global growth remains tepid due to persistent oversupply.
• Inflationary Pressure: Inflationary pressure is at a historic low, which suggests that a demand-led macro recovery may take more time.
• Uncertainties: The relief rally may lose momentum due to lingering uncertainties in the second quarter, including oil price volatility, Fed rate hikes, Brexit referendum, and North Korea's potential nuclear test.
• Portfolio Strategy: A defensive portfolio is recommended, with a beta of 0.97, slightly lower than April's 0.99, to mitigate risks.

Key Information

Portfolio Performance (April 2016)

Key Changes in May 2016

• Increased Exposure:
  • Consumer Staples: +2% to 10%
  • Financials: +2% to 11%
  • Industrials: +1% to 13%
  • Utilities: +1% to 5%
  • Telecom Services: +1% to 3%
• Decreased Exposure:
  • Energy: -1% to 3%
  • IT: -1% to 25%
  • Healthcare: -3% to 0%
  • Materials: -2% to 10%
• Added Companies:
  • Korea Aerospace Industries
  • YG Entertainment
  • Woongjin Thinkbig
  • Naver
  • Wonik IPS
  • Mando
• Removed Companies:
  • SK Chemical
  • SM Entertainment
  • Youngone Corporation
  • LG Electronics
  • NCSoft
  • Lotte Chemical
  • Hankook Tire
  • S&T Dynamics

Portfolio Weightings by Sector (As of April 2016)

Key Portfolio Changes

• Added Companies:

  • Naver: 4% (from 0%)
  • Korea Aerospace Industries: 3% (from 0%)
  • YG Entertainment: 3% (from 0%)
  • Woongjin Thinkbig: 3% (from 0%)
  • Mando: 2% (from 0%)
  • Wonik IPS: 2% (from 0%)

• Removed Companies:

  • Hankook Tire: -3% (from 0%)
  • SM Entertainment: -3% (from 0%)
  • Youngone Corporation: -3% (from 0%)
  • SK Chemicals: -3% (from 0%)
  • LG Electronics: -3% (from 0%)
  • NCSOFT: -3% (from 0%)
  • Lotte Chemical: -2% (from 0%)
  • S&T Dynamics: -2% (from 0%)

• Increased Companies:

  • Kepco: +1% (from 4% to 5%)
  • KT&G: +1% (from 3% to 4%)
  • AmoreG: +1% (from 3% to 4%)
  • KCC: +1% (from 2% to 3%)
  • Hyundai Heavy Industries: +1% (from 2% to 3%)
  • Kia Motors: +1% (from 2% to 3%)
  • SK Telecom: +1% (from 2% to 3%)
  • Samsung Fire & Marine: +1% (from 2% to 3%)

• Decreased Companies:

  • Samsung Electronics: -1% (from 15% to 14%)
  • SK Innovation: -1% (from 4% to 3%)
  • LG Chem: -1% (from 4% to 3%)
  • Hyundai Development Co: -1% (from 4% to 3%)

Conclusion

The Samsung Model Portfolio is currently underweight in energy, IT, and healthcare, while overweight in consumer discretionary, industrials, and telecom services. The portfolio is structured to capitalize on value and turnaround stocks, given the low inflationary pressure and uncertainties in the market. The Kospi target range for May is set between 1,920 and 2,050, reflecting the analysts' cautious outlook for the second quarter.