20160601-三星证券-Samsung_Model_Portfolio_Adjustments_to_weather_the_storm_16页_749kb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary (June 2016)

Core Content

The Samsung Model Portfolio is a strategic investment guide for the Korean stock market, outlining the performance review of May 2016 and the investment strategy for June 2016. The report emphasizes the importance of navigating macroeconomic uncertainties, including the potential for a second US rate hike, the UK's Brexit vote, and MSCI's decision on Emerging Market (EM) index weightings.

Main Points

1. Portfolio Performance vs. Kospi (May 2016)

• Samsung Model Portfolio: Gained 0.61% in May, outperforming the Kospi by 115bps.
• Kospi Index: Rose by 0.54% in April, 3.48% over 3 months, 0.43% over 6 months, and 6.21% over 12 months.
• Relative Performance: Samsung outperformed the Kospi by 1.15%, -0.78%, -2.42%, and 3.55% over the respective periods.

2. June Outlook

• The market is expected to be sensitive to events rather than fundamentals due to macroeconomic and financial uncertainties.
• A conservative investment strategy is advised, with moderate accumulation recommended as uncertainties subside.
• The Kospi target range for June is set at 1,880-1,980.
• A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on value and defensive stocks in the first half of June and cyclical stocks in the second half.

3. Sector Exposure Adjustments

• Increased Exposure:
  • Consumer discretionary: 20% to 23%
  • Industrials: 13% to 14%
  • IT: 25% to 26%
• Decreased Exposure:
  • Consumer staples: 10% to 8%
  • Energy: 3% to 2%
  • Materials: 10% to 8%

4. Stock Picking Changes

• Added: Kogas, Shinsegae, and Paradise
• Removed: Kepco, Woongjin Thinkbig, and CJ Cheil Jedang
• Increased Exposure: Samsung Electronics, Korea Aerospace Industries, Mando, CJ CGV, and SK Materials
• Decreased Exposure: Korea Zinc, SK Innovation, LG Chem, Kia Motors, GS Home Shopping, and Soulbrain

Key Information

Portfolio Beta

• Portfolio beta increased slightly to 1.00 in June from 0.97 in May, indicating a slightly more aggressive stance in the face of market volatility.

Performance Highlights

• Samsung Electronics: Gained 4.2% over 1 month, 5.9% over 3 months, and 5.3% over 12 months.
• Korea Aerospace Industries: Increased by 1% in weight, with -0.9% over 1 month, -8.8% over 3 months, and 11.9% over 12 months.
• Mando: Increased by 1% in weight, with 18.6% over 1 month, 43.2% over 3 months, and 68.1% over 12 months.
• CJ CGV: Increased by 1% in weight, with 1.4% over 1 month, -4.2% over 3 months, and 21.3% over 12 months.
• SK Materials: Increased by 1% in weight, with 0.7% over 1 month, -3.0% over 3 months, and 10.7% over 12 months.

Performance of Removed Stocks

• Kepco: Lost 5% in weight, with 3.3% over 1 month, 4.6% over 3 months, and 46.6% over 12 months.
• Woongjin Thinkbig: Lost 3% in weight, with -17.1% over 1 month, -26.5% over 3 months, and 10.0% over 12 months.
• CJ Cheil Jedang: Lost 2% in weight, with 3.1% over 1 month, 4.0% over 3 months, and 1.3% over 12 months.

Summary

The Samsung Model Portfolio for June 2016 reflects a strategic shift towards value and defensive stocks while cautiously increasing exposure to cyclical sectors. The portfolio is expected to perform well as uncertainties in the global market begin to dissipate. The Kospi target range for the month is set at 1,880-1,980, and a barbell strategy is advised to capitalize on market corrections.

Investors are advised to remain conservative until the market shows clear signs of recovery, particularly in major economies. The US rate hike and Brexit vote are key events that will influence market sentiment, and while these events may cause short-term volatility, they are unlikely to derail the long-term fundamentals of the global stock markets. The MSCI decision on EM weightings is also a factor to watch, with limited near-term impacts expected on the Korean stock market.

In terms of individual stock performance, Samsung Electronics, Mando, and SK Materials are highlighted for their strong performance and increased exposure, while Kepco, Woongjin Thinkbig, and CJ Cheil Jedang are removed due to underperformance and reduced strategic value. The portfolio aims to balance risk and reward by leveraging the potential of cyclical stocks and maintaining a defensive stance in uncertain times.