穆迪-全球-信贷市场-信贷展望：当前事件的信贷影响-20180507-35页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of credit implications of various corporate and market events, focusing on how these events affect the credit profiles of different entities. The summary includes both credit positive and negative developments, along with the rationale and potential impacts on financial leverage, liquidity, and ratings.

Main Points and Key Information

Credit Positive Developments

• Marathon Petroleum's acquisition of Andeavor

  • Enhances Marathon's geographic reach and operating diversification.
  • The deal is credit positive for Andeavor and its MLP, ANDX.
  • Pro forma debt/EBITDA and retained cash flow to debt remain on track.
  • Marathon has sufficient liquidity to finance the deal, with about $4.7 billion in cash and $3.5 billion in debt to assume.
  • Affirmed Marathon's rating and outlook; placed Andeavor and ANDX on review for upgrade.

• Boeing's acquisition of KLX

  • Expands Boeing's global services segment, which has higher margins.
  • The acquisition is valued at 14x EBITDA and expected to be completed in Q3.
  • Minimal impact on financial leverage; debt/EBITDA would increase to 2.3x if fully funded by debt.
  • Supports Boeing's goal of tripling services revenue to $50 billion annually.

• Pitney Bowes' debt repayment

  • Plans to repay $700 million of debt using repatriated non-US cash.
  • Debt/EBITDA leverage is expected to fall below 4.0x by the end of 2018.
  • Sale of DMT business supports strategic shift to higher-growth markets.

• B&G Foods' debt prepayments

  • Prepaid $150 million of Term Loan B, reducing debt by nearly 7%.
  • Adjusted financial leverage is now 6.0x debt/EBITDA.
  • Expected further deleveraging due to EBITDA growth and free cash flow usage.

• HC2 Holdings' sale of BeneVir unit and note offering

  • Sale of BeneVir to J&J and tack-on note offering improve liquidity.
  • Proceeds will help pay off a bridge loan and reduce leverage.
  • Collateral coverage ratio remains above 2.0x for secured debt.

• Boyd's acquisition of Lattner Entertainment

  • Credit positive due to strategic expansion into distributed gaming.
  • Pro forma debt/EBITDA is 5.8x, with no significant increase in leverage.
  • Helps diversify Boyd's asset base and reduce reliance on Las Vegas markets.

• Alpek's acquisitions

  • Acquired two petrochemical units from Petrobras, improving Latin American reach.
  • No long-term increase in leverage due to repayment of bank loans via co-generation facility sales.
  • Access to strategic polyester markets and increased production capacity.

• Rosneft's strategic focus on deleveraging

  • Credit positive as the company focuses on reducing debt.
  • Strategic initiatives support long-term financial stability.

• Edelman Financial's merger with Financial Engines

  • Credit positive due to the merger enhancing the combined entity's financial position.

• China's asset management regulation

  • Credit positive as the regulation is expected to improve transparency and stability in the sector.

• UK retailer House of Fraser's proposed CVA and capital raise

  • Credit positive for creditors due to the equity injection and CVA.
  • Helps reduce rent burden and exit unprofitable leases.
  • Expected to facilitate transformation into a more effective multi-channel retailer.

• Baidu's plan to divest its Financial Service Group

  • Credit positive as the divestiture is expected to improve financial focus and reduce leverage.

Credit Negative Developments

• Cott's share buyback

  • Credit negative as it slows deleveraging.
  • However, strong operating performance and cash flow will mitigate the impact.
  • Share repurchases are capped at $50 million, and the company plans to continue deleveraging.

• Andrade Gutierrez Engenharia misses notes payment

  • Credit negative due to missed $345 million debt payment.
  • The company is negotiating a financing transaction to meet obligations.
  • Current liquidity is tight, and failure to secure financing could result in severe losses to bondholders.

• Argentine central bank's interest-rate increases

  • Credit negative for banks due to increased borrowing costs.
  • However, high excess liquidity in the banking sector offsets this impact.

• Saudi government deposits with banks decline

  • Credit negative due to reduced deposits, but offset by high excess liquidity.

• CPMI-IOSCO reports deficiencies in clearing houses

  • Credit negative for the clearing houses due to weak risk management and recovery planning.

Summary

The document outlines a range of credit-related developments across various sectors. While several companies are taking steps to improve their financial profiles through debt reduction, asset sales, and strategic acquisitions, others face challenges such as missed debt payments and increased borrowing costs. The overall sentiment is mixed, with credit positive actions being more prevalent in the corporate and asset management sectors, while sovereign and banking sectors face certain risks. The analysis highlights the importance of liquidity, leverage, and operational performance in assessing creditworthiness.