穆迪-全球-信贷市场-当前事件的信贷影响-20171221-20页_1000kb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of credit implications of recent corporate, bank, exchange, sovereign, and public finance developments. It outlines the credit impacts of various transactions and policy changes, including acquisitions, regulatory actions, and economic stimulus programs, and is issued by Moody's Investors Service.

Corporates

Key Acquisitions and Their Credit Implications

• Campbell's acquisition of Snyder's-Lance:

  • Credit Impact: Credit negative
  • Reason: Sharp increase in debt and leverage
  • Details:
    • Acquisition value: ~$6.1 billion
    • Debt/EBITDA ratio expected to rise to 5.0x before synergies
    • Management aims to reduce leverage to below 3.0x over time
    • Strategic benefits: Expands snack portfolio to ~$4.7 billion in sales
    • Risks: Integration of two delivery networks, recent soft core performance, and aggressive profit improvement targets

• Hershey's acquisition of Amplify Snack Brands:

  • Credit Impact: Credit negative
  • Reason: Increase in leverage
  • Details:
    • Acquisition value: $1.6 billion
    • Debt/EBITDA ratio expected to rise to 2.8x before synergies
    • Strategic shift into savory snacks, which is outside of Hershey's core focus
    • Risks: Increased US market concentration, competition with Frito-Lay, and potential margin pressure

• Total System Services' acquisition of Cayan:

  • Credit Impact: Credit negative
  • Reason: Increase in leverage
  • Details:
    • Acquisition value: ~$1.05 billion
    • Debt/EBITDA ratio expected to rise to 3.4x for full-year 2017
    • Strategic benefits: Enhance payment solutions, combat pricing pressure, and improve customer retention
    • Historical deleveraging: TSYS has a track record of reducing leverage after acquisitions

• Sirius XM's increased royalty rate:

  • Credit Impact: Credit negative
  • Reason: Pressure on margins
  • Details:
    • Royalty rate increases from 11% to 15.5% of gross revenue starting 2018
    • Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to contract by ~460 basis points
    • Potential margin degradation closer to 300-350 basis points
    • Possible price increase to offset costs, but risks customer attrition

• Sibanye Gold Limited's acquisition of Lonmin:

  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Diversification, increased scale, and no additional debt
  • Details:
    • Acquisition value: $383 million (all-share offer)
    • Synergies: ~$56 million annually by 2021
    • Lonmin adds PGM reserves and production, shifting Sibanye-Stillwater to a majority PGM producer
    • Expected to reduce net debt/EBITDA to 1x within two years

Banks

Key Developments and Their Credit Implications

• Czech banks and countercyclical capital buffer:

  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Ensures capital retention amid strong loan growth
  • Details:
    • CNB increased the buffer to 1.25% of risk-weighted assets, effective January 2019
    • Banks may need to hold more capital or reduce risk-weighted assets
    • Focus on real estate and SME lending, which are key growth areas
    • Expected to support credit growth in 2018, with a 4% increase in lending

• Saudi Arabia's private-sector stimulus:

  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Boosts private-sector growth and bank lending
  • Details:
    • SAR72 billion ($19.2 billion) program over four years
    • Focus on housing, SMEs, and distressed companies
    • Expected to support bank credit growth in 2018, particularly in real estate and SME segments
    • Government plans to implement a new bankruptcy law and risk information database to improve lending quality

• Haitong International's acquisition of affiliate's UK and US assets:

  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Enhances investment banking operations and market presence
  • Details:
    • Acquisition value: $29.31 million
    • No material financial impact on Haitong International
    • Integration of operations under a unified brand to attract new clients
    • Part of a restructuring of overseas operations

Exchanges

• London Stock Exchange Group:
  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Shareholders voted to retain chairman
  • Details:
    • This decision reflects continued confidence in the company's leadership and strategic direction

Sovereigns

• Argentina's pension law:
  • Credit Impact: Credit positive
  • Reason: Advances government's reform efforts
  • Details:
    • New pension law aims to improve fiscal sustainability and long-term economic stability

US Public Finance

• Military housing allowance increase:
  • Credit Impact: Credit negative
  • Reason: Small increase in housing allowance
  • Details:
    • May lead to increased costs for the military housing sector
    • Could impact budgetary and financial sustainability

Recently in Credit Outlook

• Articles in Last Monday's Credit Outlook:
  • Includes updates on corporate and bank credit implications
• Go to Last Monday's Credit Outlook:
  • Link to previous edition for more details

Conclusion

The document highlights several credit implications from recent corporate acquisitions, regulatory changes, and economic policies. While some transactions like Sibanye Gold Limited's acquisition of Lonmin are credit positive due to diversification and synergies, others such as Campbell's and Hershey's acquisitions are credit negative due to increased leverage and integration risks. Regulatory actions like the Czech countercyclical capital buffer and Saudi private-sector stimulus are credit positive for banks, supporting credit growth and economic stability. The document also notes the potential negative impact of a small increase in military housing allowances.